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Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Boston College Eagles Betting Picks and Predictions

09 October 2020

NCAAF Picks Austyn Varney
Date:Saturday, October 10th
Time:4:00 PM ET
Venue:Alumni Stadium
Network:ACC Network
Spread:Pittsburgh -6.5
O/U:43

The 3-1 Pittsburgh Panthers will go on the road Saturday night to face off with the 2-1 Boston College Eagles at 4:00 PM ET in Alumni Stadium. You can watch the game on ACC Network. These are two very slept on teams and the winner will have a solid argument for a top-25 ranking. The loser digs a hole that will take weeks to dig out of. Pittsburgh enters as six-point road favorites and we’re expecting a defensive battle with an extremely low 43 over/under. Let’s dive into how this game will go down and who will cover the spread. 

When the Pittsburgh Panthers Have The Ball

After going 3-0 and beating Louisville in week three, the Panthers joined the top 25. That was until a week later when NC State came in and beat the Panthers by a single point on their home turf. They lost the designation and have to be devastated after they were that close to extending the perfect season. The Wolfpack threw for 336 yards and four touchdowns against Pittsburgh and it was very out of character for the Panthers D. 

Offensively, everything revolves around Kenny Pickett. He’s the QB and RB2, so they go as he goes. When Pickett is given enough time to drive the ball downfield, good things happen. He gets to work with two of the best receivers in the conference in DJ Turner and Jordan Addison. Keep an eye on Addison if you watch this game as I project him to make a difference in the NFL in five or so years. 

Vincent Davis has taken over the load at RB and he’s put up 196 yards and two scores through four games. The Panthers need better than 3.4 yards per carry, and it’s been more the offensive lines fault than anyone else. If they can sure things up, Pittsburgh will have no problem with Boston College. 

Defensively, Pittsburgh cannot be so porous through the air. They were beyond terrible against an NC State team that is no offensive powerhouse. Jurkovec is a beast and he’ll light up the secondary if given the opportunity. Boston College isn’t a team that makes very many mistakes and they won’t shoot themselves in the foot like the majority of CFB programs. If Pittsburgh doesn’t tighten up the defense, Boston College will put up a ton of points.

When The Boston College Eagles Have The Ball

The Boston College Eagles season has gone to plan thus far, beating Duke and North Texas before falling to North Carolina. They made it close with the Tar Heels, though, and Sophomore QB Phil Jurkovec outplayed Sam Howell. He threw for 300+ yards and did a good job of taking care of the ball. He faces an even tougher Pittsburgh defense than can be ferocious when clicking.

It didn’t matter in the end, but it was encouraging to see this offense produce against a high-level opponent. Jurkovec has thrown for 823 yards and five touchdowns through three games and has added another 44 yards and two scores on the ground. David Bailey hasn’t gotten into a full swing of yet, but he’s a bowling ball of a running back that is a monster in short-yardage spots. 

When Jurkovec drops back, Hunter Long is the primary target. The 6’5 Junior tight end has already caught 25 balls for 270 yards and two touchdowns. Zay Flowers (243 yards, TD) and Travis Levy (11 rec, 74 yards) are the only other two receivers to catch double-digit balls. In other words, Long is going to get peppered by targets in this matchup. Pittsburgh will be prepared, however, so BC will have to get creative when they get him the ball.

This Boston College team wins games on defense. They gave phenom Sam Howell issues just a week ago and have held three plus-offenses to a combined 53 points. Linebackers Isaiah McDuffie and Max Richardson are top-10 in the country and two of the smarter players in college football. You will realize how good an LB core can be if you watch this game. 

Spread Prediction

I like the Boston College Eagles to win this game outright. The Panthers have a lot more hype around them, but I’ve been extremely impressed by Phil Jurkovec and the world will be aware of the name soon enough. The Eagles held UNC team close and this Pittsburgh team is nowhere near as good. Give me the Eagles to surprise Pittsburgh and win as a six-point underdogs.

This Panthers defense looked utterly atrocious against NC State just a week ago and allowed 400+ yards through the air to a team that isn’t known for their passing attack. Expect Boston College to control the pace of the game from the start. This is one of my premium bets of the week and in consideration for my stone-cold lock. Give me Boston College to win. 

The Pick: Boston College +6

Best Sportsbooks For This Pick

New JerseyWilliam Hill square logoBet@William Hill
PennsylvaniaSugarHouse online casino square logoBet@SugarHouse
IndianaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
West VirginiaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
ColoradoBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
IllinoisBetRivers square logoBet@BetRivers

Total Prediction

While both of these defenses are solid, I have been impressed by the offenses more than anything for both of these teams. On the Pittsburgh side, Pickett takes good care of the ball and works methodically down the field. On the BC side, Jurkoved is efficiently wild and takes a ton of deep shots. Neither defense has been as lockdown as expected and I fully expect this to turn into a mini shootout late. I like this game to go over with ease.

The Pick: Over 43

Final Score Prediction: Boston College 24, Pittsburgh 21

Best Sportsbooks For This Pick

New JerseyWilliam Hill square logoBet@William Hill
PennsylvaniaSugarHouse online casino square logoBet@SugarHouse
IndianaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
West VirginiaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
ColoradoBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
IllinoisBetRivers square logoBet@BetRivers
Why is Boston College +6 the bet to make?

– Pittsburgh is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games.
– Boston College are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against an opponent in the Atlantic Coast conference.

Why is over 43 the bet to make?

Trends don’t love this bet, but these teams are way different animals than they’ve been in years past. I love the over in this game and think it hits with ease.

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