Oddsmakers Say Buttigieg is One of Biden Administration’s Biggest Winners So Far

July 16, 2021

Pete Buttigieg’s odds to be the Democratic nominee in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election have improved since Joe Biden’s inauguration, according to betting industry analysts at USsportsbonus.com (See Disclaimer Below). On January 20, Buttigieg was 20/1 to secure the Democratic Nomination (4.8% implied probability), but he’s since improved to 16/1 (5.9%). 

Kamala Harris remains the favorite to be the Democratic nominee, improving slightly from 2/1 (33.3% implied probability) to 9/5 (35.7%) during her first sixth months as Vice President. Biden follows closely, also improving from 9/4 (30/8%) to 2/1 (33.3%).

“The Biden administration’s first sixth months have been evaluated quite differently by both ends of the political spectrum, but the betting data seems to suggest that it’s been enough to help the top democrats’ 2024 odds improve,” says US Sportsbonus gambling industry analyst Jay Sanin. “With Biden’s, Harris’ and Buttigieg’s odds to be the 2024 Democratic Nominee improving, and other democrats like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s worsening, it’s a good indicator of what the democratic field will look like during the next election cycle.” 

Harris’ and Biden’s odds to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election also improved. Harris moved from 4/1 (20% implied probability) to 7/2 (22.2%), while Biden shifted from 9/2 (18.2%) to 4/1 (20%). Despite Buttigieg’s improving odds to win the Democratic nomination, he’s still a distant 66/1 (1.5% implied probability) to win the 2024 election, which could imply that bookies aren’t as confident in him defeating the likely GOP nominee. 

On the Republican side, Donald Trump remains the favorite to secure the Republican Nomination in 2024, as his odds to do so have improved from 7/2 (22.2% implied probability) to 3/1 (25%) since Biden’s inauguration. His nearest competitor is Ron DeSantis, who has improved significantly from 20/1 (4.8%) to 4/1 (20%) during this time. Nikki Haley has remained at 7/1 (12.5%), while Mike Pence has worsened from 8/1 (11.1%) to 12/1 (7.7%) during the current administration’s first six months in office. 

“Though a recent CPAC poll showed Trump with a strong lead over DeSantis, the betting odds have the two much closer,” says US Sportsbonus gambling industry analyst Jay Sanin. “The Florida Governor’s odds have shifted dramatically over the past few months, to the point that he was tied with Trump the Republican Nominee market at the end of June. His odds have since shifted a bit, putting Trump back in the position as the sole Republican favorite.” 

Odds to Win Democratic Nomination in 2024 Election:

 Odds on January 20, 2021Odds on July 15, 2021
Kamala Harris2/1 (+200)9/5 (+180)
Joe Biden9/4 (+225)2/1 (+200)
Pete Buttigieg20/1 (+2000)16/1 (+1600)
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez12/1 (+1200)20/1 (+2000)
Elizabeth Warren30/1 (+3000)33/1 (+3300)
Andrew Yang 33/1 (+3300)33/1 (+3300)

Odds to Win Republican Nomination in 2024 Election:

 Odds on January 20, 2021Odds on July 15, 2021
Donald Trump7/2 (+350)3/1 (+300)
Ron DeSantis20/1 (+2000)4/1 (+400)
Nikki Haley7/1 (+700)7/1 (+700)
Mike Pence8/1 (+800)12/1 (+1200)
Ted Cruz16/1 (+1600)20/1 (+2000)
Kristi NoemN/A 20/1 (+2000)
Marco Rubio25/1 (+2500)50/1 (+5000)

Odds to Win 2024 U.S. Presidential Election:

 Odds on January 20, 2021Odds on July 15, 2021
Kamala Harris4/1 (+400)7/2 (+350)
Joe Biden9/2 (+450)4/1 (+400)
Donald Trump8/1 (+800)7/1 (+700)
Mike Pence10/1 (+1000)20/1 (+2000)
Nikki Haley16/1 (+1600)16/1 (+1600)
Ron DeSantis66/1 (+6600)12/1 (+1200)
Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson33/1 (+3300)25/1 (+2500)
Ivanka Trump50/1 (+5000)50/1 (+5000)
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez25/1 (+2500)50/1 (+5000)
Marco Rubio50/1 (+5000)50/1 (+5000)
Elizabeth Warren50/1 (+5000)50/1 (+5000)
Ted Cruz40/1 (+4000)50/1 (+5000)
Tucker Carlson33/1 (+3300)50/1 (+5000)
Mike Pompeo40/1 (+4000)50/1 (+5000)
Josh Hawley33/1 (+3300)50/1 (+5000)
Kristi NoemN/A50/1 (+5000)
Pete Buttigieg33/1 (+3300)60/1 (+6600)

Disclaimer: Wagering on the outcomes presented in this article is not currently legalized in the U.S. Odds listed are for illustrative purposes only, and are gathered from overseas operators, where betting on such props is legal and regulated. 

Gus
Gus Anderson
Gus Anderson is a gambling wizard. As a kid he dreamt about becoming a Tennis, Hockey and Golf professional but ended up as a gambling professional focusing on Tennis and Hockey.