Oregon Ducks vs. USC Trojans Betting Picks

December 14, 2020

Date:Friday, December 18th
Time:8:00 PM ET
Network:FOX
Venue:Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Spread:USC -3.5
O/U:57

The 3-2 Oregon Ducks will meet the 5-0 USC Trojans in the PAC-12 Championship at 8:00 PM ET in Los Angeles Coliseum. The Ducks are replacing a Washington Huskies team that is unable to play due to COVID. The Trojans enter the championship as 3.5-point favorites and we’re expecting plenty of points with a 62 over/under. You can tune in on FOX. Let’s dive into how this one will go and who will end up covering the spread. Make sure to check out the rest of our CFB Picks and Predictions as we will be covering every single conference championship and bowl game.

Trends

  • Ducks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog.
  • Trojans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
  • Over is 4-0 in Ducks last 4 games on grass.
  • Over is 5-0 in Trojans last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.

When The Oregon Ducks Have The Ball

The Ducks’ five games didn’t go quite as planned, losing to Oregon State and California as comfortable favorites in each of their last two games. They will have a great chance at redemption here as a win will put them in the running for a solid bowl game. A loss would be a 3-3 tag on the season, which doesn’t help to recruit. They won’t have an easy test against a USC team that is filled with talent.

Offensively, Oregon has struggled to pass the ball with consistency. Tyler Shough has shown flashes of greatness, but they’ve been outweighed by the ugly in each of his last two starts. He’s up 1,389 yards on the year with 11 touchdowns and four interceptions. He must have a massive game against USC and he certainly can’t turn the ball over more than once or twice. 

They run the ball effectively with their elite pair of backs in Travis Dye (336 yards, TD) and C.J. Verdell (285 yards, 3 TD). Each is incredibly talented but has dealt with their fair share of injuries and you can tell neither can handle a monster workload. Shough can run it as well as evidenced by his 256 yards and two scores. Running the ball is the backbone of this offense and it’s why they struggle when falling behind. 

When Shough does drop back to pass it, he has a plethora of weapons. Jaylon Redd leads the team in catches with 20, Devon Williams leads them in yards with 264, and Travis Dye leads in touchdowns out of the backfield with three. That’s without mentioning Johnny Johnson III, DJ Johnson, or Hunter Kampmoyer, who have all caught two touchdowns. This is a lethal attack if Shough can take care of the football. 

When The USC Trojans Have The Ball

The Trojans are a battle-tested 5-0, winning just one of their games comfortably. They managed to win four close ones and the offense has been better and better each and every game. Sophomore QB Kedon Slovis is one of the best quarterbacks in the entire country and he’s up to 1,601 yards with 15 touchdowns and four interceptions. He has 10 touchdowns in just the last two games, finally hitting his stride. 

The wide receivers are elite and it’s hard to discern between the three in terms of production. Drake London (427 yards, 3 TD), Amon-Ra St. Brown (404 yards, 6 TD), and Tyler Vaughns (382 yards, 3 TD) can all kill you and it forces your defense to play straight up. You then have another three talented running backs in Vavae Malepeai, Markese Stepp, and Stephen Carr. This is an extremely talented Trojans team and they’re tough to stop when Slovis is throwing it like this. 

Spread Prediction

The Pick: USC -3.5

The Trojans didn’t look tremendous to start the season, but that certainly hasn’t been the case of late. Slovis has tossed it for 10 scores in just the last two games and the offensive line has allowed just a single sack. Oregon looked terrible in each of their last two games and Shough hasn’t shown an ability to move the ball consistently. I’m a massive fan of the Trojans here and will be laying a hefty bet down before a big Saturday. 

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Total Prediction

The Pick: Over 57
Final Score Prediction: USC 41, Oregon 28

The Trojans are going to put up points here. The Ducks couldn’t stop far inferior opponents in each of their last two games and Slovis is going to dice them up. Color me shocked if he doesn’t throw it for 350+ yards. The Trojans defense isn’t great in its own right and I’m a fan of the over here. I certainly like USC more, but will have my fair share of exposure to the total as well. 

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