Oregon Ducks vs. California Bears Betting Picks

December 4, 2020

Date:Saturday, December 5th
Time:7:00 PM ET
Network:ESPN
Venue:California Memorial Stadium
Spread:Oregon -9.5
O/U:59.5

The 3-1 Oregon Ducks will go on the road Saturday night to face off with the 0-3 California Bears at 7:00 PM ET in California Memorial Stadium. The Ducks come in as 9.5-point road favorites and we’re looking at plenty of points with a 59.5 over/under. Let’s dive into how this one will go down and who will end up covering the spread. Make sure to check out the rest of my CFB Picks and Predictions for this upcoming weekend slate of games.

Trends

  • Ducks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
  • Golden Bears are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in December.
  • Over is 5-0 in Ducks last 5 games as a road favorite.
  • Over is 4-1 in Golden Bears last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

When The Oregon Ducks Have The Ball

The Ducks are coming off a heartbreaking 41-38 loss to their in-state rival Oregon State Beavers in a game that was back and forth throughout. The Ducks defense was supposed to be the best in the conference and it simply hasn’t been the case. They’ve given up 41 to Oregon State and 35 to UCLA in the last two weeks. They are likely out of contention for a big bowl game as they simply haven’t played enough games.

Offensively, the Ducks are led by sophomore QB Tyler Shough. He’s been an excellent successor to Herbert, and has thrown for 1,158 yards 10 touchdowns, and four interceptions on top of 203 rushing yards and two scores in just four games. This offense still wants to run the ball and CJ Verdell and Travis Dye are two guys that the NFL has their eyes on. This offense has plenty of weapons and they’ve been solid. The defense must step up and force a couple of turnovers.

When The California Bears Have The Ball

It’s been an ugly start to the season for Cal, losing their first three games of the season. The last two L’s have been by a combined five points, so they’ve been close to victory but can’t seem to grasp it. The same Beavers team that beat Oregon beat this Cal team by just four points, so these teams aren’t in different atmospheres.

Offensively, Cal averages just 20 points per game. They’re a run-first attack led by Marcel Dancy and Damien Moore. QB Chase Garbers also gets involved on the ground and is the only one with a touchdown. With that said, the Bears would like to pass it more. Garbers has thrown it for 588 yards and five touchdowns with three interceptions. He must step up and have a big day against an Oregon secondary that’s been vulnerable to this point.

Spread Prediction

The Pick: Oregon -9.5

The Ducks are going to be on fire after losing last week and this Cal Bears team isn’t one that can take the heat. The offense is underwhelming and Chase Garbers has a tendency to turn the ball over. The Ducks are going to win this game by at least ten points. Make sure to jump on this number before it rises as it inevitably will. The sharp and public seems to be on the Ducks to this point.

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Total Prediction

The Pick: Over 59.5
Final Score Prediction: Oregon 37, California 24

The Ducks defense isn’t what we are used to and this is a team that now relies on their offense. Shough and co. are going to put up 40+ points in this game and I really wouldn’t be surprised if they push 50. The Ducks have an elite offensive line and I expect this whole unit to wake up after last week. The Bears offense stinks, but they’re about as bad as the Oregon D and they will score. The over is the move here.

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