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Oklahoma Sooners vs. TCU Horned Frogs Betting Picks and Predictions

23 October 2020

NCAAF Picks Austyn Varney
Date:Saturday, October 24th
Time:12:00 PM ET
Network:ABC
Venue:Amon Carter Stadium
Spread:Oklahoma -6.5
O/U:59.5

The 2-2 Oklahoma Sooners will go on the road Saturday to face off with the 1-2 TCU Horned Frogs at 12:00 PM ET in Amon G. Carter Stadium. You can watch the showdown on ABC. The Sooners come in as 6.5-point road favorites and we’re looking at a 59.5 over/under. These teams have both fallen from grace in an ugly way this season, but it will only get worse for one of them. Let’s dive in and breakdown who will win this game and cover the spread. 

When The Oklahoma Sooners Have The Ball

Both of these teams have disappointed in a big way, but it was the Sooners with College Football Playoff aspirations. Those are out of the picture now and Oklahoma will be lucky to finish the season as a ranked team. They haven’t been as disciplined as Sooners teams in years past and it’s cost them. With that said, they are coming off a 4OT thriller victory against Texas and the offense looked great. The defense just has to eventually step up. 

Freshman QB Spencer Rattler hasn’t been very good. The flashes of brilliance have been there, no doubt, but he’s not shown any level of consistency. He certainly isn’t Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts, or Baker Mayfield. Not yet at least. He’s thrown for 1,186 yards with 13 touchdowns and five interceptions. He’s added 67 yards and two scores on the ground. 

The Sooners leaned on their running game a lot more against Texas with the inconsistencies at quarterback. T.J. Pledger leads the way with 219 yards and two scores on the season. He’s spelled by freshman phenom Seth McGowan, who’s the most explosive player on the field in this game. He’s added 181 yards and two scores of his own. Look for Oklahoma to run the ball early against TCU in hopes to gain some respect. 

Rattler doesn’t have a favorite option when it comes to these receivers. Five different pass-catchers have caught 10+ balls and seven of them have gone for over 100 yards. Tight end Austin Stogner leads the team in receiving yards with 230 on top of a score. Marvin Mims has been the Red Zone monster, hauling in four touchdowns on 15 catches and 196 yards. Charleston Rambo is the most talented receiver on the team and he’s caught 15 for 187 and two scores. Look for him to have the best numbers of this group by season end. 

When The TCU Horned Frogs Have The Ball

The Horned Frogs haven’t been much better than Oklahoma. They’ve shown flashes of brilliance, but have also lost some unexpected contests and haven’t looked good in those games. Their sole win came against the Texas Longhorns when they were ranked ninth in the country. Their losses came to Iowa State to open the season and Kansas State most recently. 

The Horned Frogs want to run the ball as much as they possibly can. The offense runs through QB Max Duggan and he leads the backfield with 132 yards and three scores. Three other backs split carries with Kendre Miller leading in yards (119) and Darwin Barlow leading in TD’s (2). Expect plenty of early runs as TCU looks to keep the ball away from Oklahoma. 

The Horned Frogs are a diverse offense when Max Duggan is effective under center. He’s inconsistent, but looks phenomenal at times. He’s completely nearly 70% of his passes for 626 yards, three scores, and one interception. When Duggan plays well, this offense puts up points. He wasn’t very good against Kansas State and they couldn’t move the ball. Look for Duggan to bounce back against a weak Sooners defense. 

His weapons are plentiful. Freshman phenom Blair Conwright leads the pack with 11 catches for 176 yards and a score. He’s a threat to take it to the house on any given down. Taye Barber is a beast in the slot and he’s put up 13 catches for 144 yards and a TD. They’re the only two receivers over seven catches, but there are eight others with four or more catches. When it’s not going to the superstar pair, it can be going anywhere. Look for Duggan to have success with his usual weapons against a weak secondary. 

All in all, the Horned Frogs defense must step up if they want to win this game. Rattler has turned the ball over in key spots a few times already this season and TCU has shown the ability to force pressure. They’ve also fallen apart late in games, so they’ll likely dictate which way this game heads. 

Spread Prediction

This isn’t a spread I’m a huge fan of and I’d rather take the total. I do think TCU plays the Sooners tough, but I think Oklahoma finds a way to win. Whether that’s by three, seven, or 10 points is anybody’s guess. The Sooners offense is going to have success, but they haven’t shown an ability to stop anyone and TCU always plays them tough. If I can get the number under seven, I’ll ride with the Sooners. If that number comes up over seven, give me TCU with over a touchdown. Let’s move to the total, which is my preferred bet in this game.

The Pick: Oklahoma -6.5

Best Sportsbooks For This Pick

New JerseyWilliam Hill square logoBet@William Hill
PennsylvaniaSugarHouse online casino square logoBet@SugarHouse
IndianaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
West VirginiaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
ColoradoBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
IllinoisBetRivers square logoBet@BetRivers

Total Prediction

This total is far too low. Both of these offenses are going to put up 30 points in this game and I’d bet the over up to 65. It’s nowhere close to that and I can’t figure out why. The Horned Frogs have looked decent on defense, but the Sooners are the most diverse offense they’ve faced and I don’t see them holding Oklahoma to less than five touchdowns. Give me the over as my favorite bet of the game and a marquee bet of the days slate. I’ll be laying two units. 

The Pick: Over 59.5

Final Score Prediction: Oklahoma 38, TCU 31

Best Sportsbooks For This Pick

New JerseyWilliam Hill square logoBet@William Hill
PennsylvaniaSugarHouse online casino square logoBet@SugarHouse
IndianaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
West VirginiaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
ColoradoBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
IllinoisBetRivers square logoBet@BetRivers
  • Oklahoma is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Texas Christian.
  • Texas Christian is 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games at home.
  • The total has gone OVER in 9 of Texas Christian’s last 13 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma’s last 5 games.

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