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Oklahoma Sooners (18) vs. Iowa State Cyclones Betting Picks and Predictions

03 October 2020

NCAAF Picks Austyn Varney
Date:Saturday, October 3rd
Time:7:30 PM ET
Venue:Jack Trice Stadium
Network:ABC
Spread:Oklahoma -7
O/U:63.5

The 1-1 18th-ranked Oklahoma Sooners will go on the road Saturday night to face off with the 1-1 Iowa State Cyclones at 7:30 PM ET in Jack Trice Stadium. The Sooners were CFB hopefuls before getting upset by Kansas State for the second consecutive season. Iowa State dealt with a similar result in week one, so these two teams are both looking to save already disastrous seasons. Let’s dive into who will win this game and cover the spread.

When the Oklahoma Sooners Have The Ball

I’m not sure if I am the only one, but Oklahoma has been a glaring pretender for five years now and it’s comical to see “experts” prject them for success. Here’s a hint. Until Lincoln Reilly is gone, this team is nothing more than exciting. I know, so shocking. He’s an offensive genius but his teams routinely fail in crucial spots. They don’t get tough enough in the trenches and take too many chances defensively.

After starting the season with championship aspirations, the Kansas State Wildcats got rid of those in a hurry for the second consecutive season. The upside showed with Spencer Rattler, but he certainly didn’t look as good as the two guys he’s following. He turned the ball over twice and KSU dropped another two. If Oklahoma wants to have any success, they’ll need Rattler to step up in a big way. This offense is based around the QB and they go as he goes.

The Sooners were beat by a Kansas State team a week ago that nearly lost their first game of the year to an FCS opponent. The Sooners defense was terrible and it might be worse than we’re used to, which is already pretty horrid. The Iowa State Cyclones are going to throw the hell out of the ball, so Oklahoma better be ready to play some defense or they’re going to get torched.

Offensively, Oklahoma seems a bit lost. They no longer have CeeDee Lamb, so their go-to option is gone. RB Seth McGowan has been the teams best player to this point, and he’s a freshman that wasn’t supposed to do anything until next year. Marvin Mims and Charleston Rambo share the load at receiver and both have upside. They just aren’t the type of receivers that will single-handedly dominate a game.

T.J. Pledger and Marcus Major came into the season as the top two running backs and they need to get it together in a big way. They’ve combined for just under four yards per carry, which is simply unacceptable on an Oklahoma offense that sees nobody in the box. With all of that being said, Spencer Rattler can bring the offense to the next level by himself. He just has to take care of the ball and be smarter with his legs. He’ll have every opportunity to against an Iowa State defense that isn’t very good.

When The Iowa State Cyclones Have The Ball

Iowa State’s season was basically over before it started, getting upset 31-14 by the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns in week one. They bounced back with a 37-34 victory over TCU and their schedule is hard enough to warrant a high-end bid with just one loss. That’s what the Cyclones coaches are preaching, at least. They face off with an Oklahoma team that is going to try to outscore them.

This game comes down to one person and it’s QB Brock Purdy. I don’t know if I have ever seen a guy that’s so inconsistent. It’s not even like he’s a different arm from game to game, it’s play to play. He can look like Marino on first down and Geno Smith by third. It really doesn’t make much sense, but what’s obvious is the immense talent in his arm.

Purdy has thrown for 6,000+ yards at Iowa State and it hasn’t been by mistake. Their offense is built to pass and they get to face an Oklahoma team that is brutal against the pass. When Purdy drops back, he’ll be looking at Xavier Hutchinson. He’s the only receiver to seperate himself to this point as 12 others have caught passes. Expect TE Charlie Kolar to assert himself against Oklahoma as he’s one of the best tight ends in the country and a nightmare in the red zone.

Their best player is RB Breece Hall, who will inevitably play a big role in a future NFL offense. He’s not only a dynamic running back, but he can also impact the passing game and went over 100 receiving yards multiple times in 2019. Look for Iowa State to get him the ball in space and for him to do a ton of damage against this soft defense.

Spread Prediction

I didn’t believe in Oklahoma prior to last weekend and that game only put off what was going to eventually happen one way or another. Iowa State is not only dangerous offensively, but they’re experienced. Oklahoma won’t get lucky this week with young mistakes, so they’ll have to make sure they won’t be the team making them once again.

Brock Purdy has elite weapons at his disposal and he knows how to get them the ball. It might be a bit of a bold call, but I like Iowa State to take care of business here and get the win. I haven’t been impressed by Spencer Rattler, who hasn’t had much time to gel with this offense. Give me the Cyclones all day here as the public hops back on the Sooners.

The Pick: Iowa State +7

Best Sportsbooks For This Pick

New JerseyWilliam Hill square logoBet@William Hill
PennsylvaniaSugarHouse online casino square logoBet@SugarHouse
IndianaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
West VirginiaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
ColoradoBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
IllinoisBetRivers square logoBet@BetRivers

Total Prediction

My favorite bet in this game is on the over. This number is way too low and it’s my favorite bet of the weekend slate. These defenses suck, for the lack of a better word. I can think of one, but that explains them perfectly. Especially through the air. Oklahoma has a dynamite attack that’s going to put up 40 or so points. Iowa State will match them and it’s going to come down to a few late fourth quarter drives to decide this game. Give me the over here and twice on Saturday.

The Pick: Over 63.5

Final Score Prediction: Iowa State 42, Oklahoma 39

Best Sportsbooks For This Pick

New JerseyWilliam Hill square logoBet@William Hill
PennsylvaniaSugarHouse online casino square logoBet@SugarHouse
IndianaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
West VirginiaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
ColoradoBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
IllinoisBetRivers square logoBet@BetRivers

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