Oklahoma Sooners vs. Iowa State Cyclones Betting Picks

The 7-2 Oklahoma Sooners will go on the road Saturday to face off with 8-2 Iowa State Cyclones in the Big 12 Championship at 12:00 PM ET in AT&T Stadium. The Sooners enter as six-point favorites and we’re expecting plenty of points on the board with a 58 over/under. These two teams are a lot better than they were to start the season and the winner will absolutely make a New Years Bowl. Let’s dive into how this one will go down and who will end up covering the spread. Make sure to check out the rest of my NCAAF Picks and Predictions for the upcoming weekend slate of games.

• Sooners are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
• Cyclones are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
• Under is 19-4-1 in Sooners last 24 games in December.
• Under is 5-0-1 in Cyclones last 6 neutral site games as an underdog.

The Sooners looked disastrous to start the season, losing two of their first three games. One of them was to this same Iowa State team, who downed them 37-30 in what was a spectacular game. Both offenses were able to move the ball, but they also both shot themselves in the foot and it was a case of who could just take care of the ball. It’s fair to say both of these teams are very different at this point in the season, though, so the first game won’t have any indication on how this one will go.

Sophomore QB Spencer Rattler has looked better and better each and every game and he’s now up to a 69% completion rate with 2,512 yards, 24 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. That’s on top of 103 rushing yards and four more scores. He’s the heart and soul of this offense and they don’t do much when he’s off. He has a plethora of weapons on the outside, but his two favorites are Marvin Mims (482 yards, 7 TD) and Theo Wease (467 yards, 3 TD). Austin Stogner and Charleston Rambo are excellent compliments.

With all of that said, Oklahoma wants to run the ball. They’ve rushed it more than they’ve passed it this season. The backfield is manned by T.J. Pledger (449 yards, 5 TD), Rhamondre Stevenson (382 yards, 6 TD), and Seth McGowan (297 yards, 3 TD). They are the backbones of this offense and the offensive line must give them holes to make things happen.

The Cyclones are a team that has struggled to find their identity this season, though their sheer talent has carried them to 8-2 and the eighth ranking in the country. They’ve figured out getting RB Breece Hall the ball is their only chance as he’s one of the best all-around offensive players in the entire nation. He’s averaged 6.1 yards per carry en route to 1,357 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns on top of 144 receiving yards and two scores.

While Hall is the best player on this offense, they’re still led by junior QB Brock Purdy. He’s up to 2,272 yards with 17 touchdowns and six interceptions. He’s also run it more than ever this season, scoring it four times on 310 yards. Xavier Hutchinson has emerged as WR1 while Charlie Kolar remains the top scoring threat with five TD’s on the season. The Cyclones defense must step up big time against an Oklahoma offense that can put up 40+ when Rattler takes care of the ball.

The Cyclones won this game at the beginning of the season, but I’m not so sure this one goes the same way. The Sooners offense was a mess to begin the year and is far more lethal at this point. Not only is their offense much improved, but the defense has stepped up of late, turning teams over and giving the offense solid field position. The Cyclones are undoubtedly talented, but they can struggle when Breece Hall is taken out of the game.

I like Oklahoma to control this game through the air. The Sooners have turned it on of late and the Cyclones have allowed 300+ yards passing to inferior offenses. Purdy has turned the ball over too often this year and it always seems like at the wort time. Give me the Sooners here and jump on it before it reaches seven.

I actually think this game flies under with these two teams facing off earlier in the season. The defenses will be more familiar with the opposing offense and both teams will want to establish the run here. I expect the first half to be very low scoring, and like the first-half under even more than the full game. While both of these teams can score, they don’t necessarily do it in a hurry and I wouldn’t call either attack lethal.