Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Purdue Boilermakers CBB Betting Picks

December 15, 2020

Date:Wednesday, December 16th
Time:7:00 PM ET
Network:Big Ten Network
Venue:Mackey Arena
Spread:Purdue -4
O/U:134.5

The 5-0 Ohio State Buckeyes will go on the road Wednesday night to face off with the 4-2 Purdue Boilermakers at 7:00 PM ET in Mackey Arena. You can tune in on the Big Ten Network. The Boilermakers enter as four-point home favorites and we’re expecting a bit of a defensive battle with a 134.5 over/under. Let’s dive into how this one will go down and who will end up covering the spread. Make sure to check out the rest of our CBB Picks and Predictions for the upcoming weekend slate of games.

Trends

  • Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
  • Boilermakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
  • Over is 4-0 in Buckeyes last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
  • Over is 11-2 in Boilermakers last 13 games as a home favorite.

When The Ohio State Buckeyes Have The Ball

The Buckeyes have taken care of all five of their opponents and they’re coming off two close victories over Notre Dame and Cleveland State. Neither of these teams play very fast, but Ohio State is definitely the slower squad (68.7 KenPom Adjusted Tempo). They still manage to average seven more points than Purdue and they’ve played better defense to this point. The offense is based around guards Duane Washington Jr. (14.8 pts, 2.4 reb, 2.4 ast) and CJ Walker (13.2 pts, 3.2 reb, 4.0 ast), who have both shot under 39% from the field to this point. Things will get better for both and they will lead this team in scoring.

Sophomore forward E.J. Liddell is currently leading the bunch with 15.5 points per game, but that’s just the start of it. He’s also grabbing 7.5 boards per game with 1.5 steals and 1.5 blocks. He’s a defensive stalwart in the paint and has no problem on the perimeter with stretch forwards. Justice Sueing is no slouch down low either, posting his own 14 points and four boards per game. You then have another four guys that average between three and seven points. This Ohio State team is a balanced one with enough firepower at the top to make some noise come March.

When The Purdue Boilermakers Have The Ball

Things haven’t been great for Purdue to start the season, losing to both Clemson and Miami as the favored team. They haven’t played a single ranked opponent to this point and it will be interesting to see how they either step up or crumble against the Buckeyes. They might play a little bit faster than Ohio State, but they lack in efficiency and must take better care of the basketball.

The leader and by far best player on this team is forward Trevion Williams. Coming off a 30-point outburst, Williams is up to 13.3 points and 10.3 rebounds per game. The second-leading scorer is 7’4 Center Zach Edey. First of all, that is not a typo. He’s only playing 15 minutes per game, but has put up 13.3 points and 4.2 rebounds with just 0.8 blocks. That has to change. Williams and Eden also both turn it over two-plus times a game, which is unsustainable for big men. At guard, Purdue has been banged up. Sasha Stefanovic is the only one who has played every game and he’s put up 12 per game with 3.3 assists. He has to shoot better than 46% from the field.

Spread Prediction

The Pick: Ohio State To Win +155

These are two extremely talented teams, but the Ohio State Buckeyes have been far more consistent to this point. Purdue is already extremely banged up and their two best players on the inside will be outmatched in this game. While Williams and Eden are talented, they don’t have the engine that Sueing and Liddell have. Duane Washington Jr. is the best guard on the floor and he will be the difference maker. Give me the Buckeyes to win this game out right.

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Total Prediction

The Pick: Under 134.5
Final Score Prediction: Ohio State 67, Purdue 64

The Ohio State Buckeyes should have success at controlling the pace here. Purdue only plays slightly faster than Ohio State, but they turn the ball over six times more on average and shoot at a far less efficient clip. The Buckeyes are going to be the toughest defense they faced since Clemson, who held them to 35% from the field. I love the under in this game and will have exposure to both Ohio State and the under.

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