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Notre Dame Fighting Irish (2) vs. Boston College Eagles Betting Picks and Predictions

14 November 2020

NCAAF Picks Austyn Varney
Date:Saturday, November 14th
Time:3:30 PM ET
Network:ABC
Venue:Alumni Stadium
Spread:Notre Dame -14
O/U:51

The 7-0 Notre Dame Fighting Irish will go on the road Saturday to face off with the 5-3 Boston College Eagles at 3:30 PM ET in Alumni Stadium. The Irish are 14-point road favorites and we’re looking at a defensive battle with a 51 over/under. Notre Dame is the talk of the CFB forecast after beating Clemson and they’ll have to keep looking forward as the Eagles won’t make anything easy. They actually led Clemson at halftime a week prior to Notre Dame beating them. Let’s dive into how this game will go down and who will end up covering the spread. Make sure to check out the rest of my NCAAF Picks and Prediction for this weekend slate of games.

Trends

  • Boston College is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against an opponent in the ACC.
  • Boston College is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games at home.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Notre Dame’s last 13 games against an opponent in the ACC.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Boston College’s last 9 games against Notre Dame.

When The Notre Dame Fighting Irish Have The Ball

The Irish beat the Clemson Tigers 47-40 in a 2OT thriller that came down to the Tigers being unable to move the ball from the 25. The offense put up 47 points and were the main catalysts behind the victory, but the defense did it’s job when it needed to and they made a few key plays late in the game, including three turnovers. The Fighting Irish turned it over just once themselves and were far more efficient on third downs. 

They’ve done it with the running game to this point, and Kyren Williams has been the workhorse back they’ve needed. Williams has carried it 128 times for 740 yards and 10 touchdowns, averaging nearly six yards per carry. Senior QB Ian Book, who we will delve into shortly, has added 279 rushing yards and five touchdowns of his own. Chris Tyree and C’Bo Flemister have added just over 40 carries each and act as excellent complementary pieces to Williams. Notre Dame will continue running the ball 25 or so times a game against Boston College. 

Speaking of Ian Book, the senior signal-caller is the heart and soul of this Notre Dame Fighting Irish team and they go as he goes. He’s thrown for 1500 yards to this point with eight touchdowns and one interception. The Irish have been able to lean on the running game and it’s allowed Book to get some space when he drops back. He’s also been afforded a few bad games against weaker opponents, and he’s been able to iron out some of the chemistry issues with his new receivers. 

Book does a great job of spreading the ball around with six different receivers over 150 yards on the season. Javon McKinley leads the team in yards 366 on just 19 receptions. Tight end Michael Mayer leads the team with 20 catches and he’s added 235 yards and two touchdowns. Mayer has gotten more and more involved every single game and is an athletic beast at TE. Ben Skowronek is dangerous when healthy and his chemistry will only grow with Book as the games pass.

When The Boston College Eagles Have The Ball

The Eagles have been up and down all season long and have truly been one of the tougher teams to project in all of CFB. They lost to Clemson by just six points and UNC by four, but were beat by 26 by Virginia Tech. That should explain it enough. They still remain one of the more dangerous teams in the conference and are a squad you can’t overlook. Notre Dame is ranked second in the country and Boston College is going to come out with just a little bit more fire than usual. 

They’re led by QB Phil Jurkovec, who’s been a lot better than expected this season and is one of the more impressive first-time starters in the country. He’s passed for 2,083 yards and 15 touchdowns with just four INTs while completing 62% of his passes. The Fighting Irish have been tough against the pass this year and Jurkovec will need to step up in a big way. 

There is no shortage of talent at wide receiver for Boston College. WR Zay Flowers (600 yards, 6 TD) and TE Hunter Long (501 yards, 3 TD) are the two primary targets and both are elite talents for their respective positions. CJ Lewis and Jaelen Gill start opposite Flowers and have each caught right around 20 passes apiece and Lewis has turned in four scores. Then you have running back Travis Levy, who’s caught 22 balls out of the backfield for 216 yards. Jurkovec has plenty of weapons and it’s just a matter of getting the ball in their hands. 

This offense has a perfect 50% split between running and passing. With A.J. Dillon off to play in the NFL, the Eagles have turned towards David Bailey. He runs with a similar style to Dillon, looking to run people over instead of going around them. He has 429 yards and four scores on the season, averaging just under four yards per carry. Levy and Jurkovec have each complimented with 65 or so rushes and do a good job of keeping opposing defenses on their heels. 

Spread Prediction

The Fighting Irish will eventually wake up and right the ship, but Boston College is going to make this one very interesting. They don’t have any clear holes and they’re not going to give Notre Dame an inch on either side of the ball. They’re a well-coached team and they’ve played up to every opponent this season. I expect the Eagles to come out and grab a lead early in this one and they will hold onto it until the third quarter. That’s when I expect Notre Dame to grab this game by the horns and do what’s necessary to get the win. This is too many points and I’m all over the Boston College Eagles at anything 14 or higher. 

The Pick: Boston College +14

Best Sportsbooks For This Pick

New JerseyWilliam Hill square logoBet@William Hill
PennsylvaniaSugarHouse online casino square logoBet@SugarHouse
IndianaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
West VirginiaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
ColoradoBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
IllinoisBetRivers square logoBet@BetRivers

Total Prediction

Both of these offenses can put up points, but it’s not like either of these defenses are going to make things easy. The two defenses rank second and fifth in defensive efficiency and both are excellent at creating turnovers. While I do expect both offenses to have their fair share of success, it won’t be enough to hit this over. I like Boston College and the points more, but lean the under on this total. Not a single point on either side of this game will come easily.

The Pick: Under 51

Final Score Prediction: Notre Dame 28, Boston College 20

Best Sportsbooks For This Pick

New JerseyWilliam Hill square logoBet@William Hill
PennsylvaniaSugarHouse online casino square logoBet@SugarHouse
IndianaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
West VirginiaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
ColoradoBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
IllinoisBetRivers square logoBet@BetRivers

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