Northwestern Wildcats vs. Michigan State Spartans Betting Picks

November 27, 2020

Date:Saturday, November 28th
Time:3:30 PM ET
Network:ESPN
Venue:Spartan Stadium
Spread:Northwestern -13.5
O/U:41.5

The 5-0 Northwestern Wildcats go on the road Saturday afternoon to face off with the 1-3 Michigan State Spartans at 3:30 PM ET in Spartan Stadium. The Wildcats come in as 13.5-point road favorites and we’re expecting another defensive battle with a 41.5 over/under. Let’s dive into how this one will go down and who will end up covering the spread. Make sure to check out the rest of my CFB Picks and Predictions for this packed weekend slate of games.

Trends

  • Wildcats are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
  • Spartans are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
  • Under is 5-0 in Wildcats last 5 games overall.
  • Under is 5-0 in Spartans last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

When The Northwestern Wildcats Have The Ball

The Wildcats are undefeated through five games and proved their worth with a 17-7 defensive standoff win over the Wisconsin Badgers just a week ago. The Wildcats are now the eighth-ranked team in the country and they have a chance to make the CFB playoff with an eventual win over the Buckeyes.

The Wildcats beat you with their defense, and they’ll make it tough on Michigan State to put up any points. Offensively, they want to run it with Darius Anderson and Isaiah Bowser as much as possible. The pair will see 25 carries in this matchup and the Spartans have struggled against the run. QB Peyton Ramsey isn’t a game-changer, but he’s been better this season and is a fine passer when he takes care of the football. He runs it well in short to-go spots.

When The Michigan State Spartans Have The Ball

The Spartans have been terrible this season and their lone victory is still the one over the Michigan Wolverines. It looked impressive at the time, but Michigan has proven to be terrible. They were shutout 24-0 in their last game at home vs Indiana. It was an embarrassing performance, to say the least.

The Spartans throw it more than ever and Rocky Lombardi has been flat-out bad. Through four games, he’s thrown seven interceptions and six touchdowns. He was benched for Payton Thorne, who was even worse. No matter what the Spartans do at QB, they must give them short passes that can be completed. The talent is there at receiver if they can figure out how to efficiently get them the ball.

Spread Prediction

The Pick: Northwestern -13.5

I really don’t think this Northwestern team is all that much different than they have been in years past, but this Michigan State one certainly is. They are beyond terrible and don’t have a single strength to lean on. Their defense isn’t terrible, but they’ve given up early leads in every game but one. Give me the Wildcats to control this game from the start and win by 20+ points.

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Total Prediction

The Pick: Under 41.5
Final Score Prediction: Northwestern 28, Michigan State 6

These two teams both lean on their defense and I don’t have confidence in Michigan State putting up more than a single score. Northwestern held a much better Wisconsin offense to just seven a week ago and scored 17 themselves. This number is low for good reason and I’ll stick with the under. Neither of these offenses are prolific and they don’t want to play fast.

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