North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Betting Picks

December 6, 2020

Date:Tuesday, December 8th
Time:7:35 PM ET
Network:ESPN
Venue:Carver-Hawkeye Arena
Spread:Iowa -3
O/U:157

The 3-1 North Carolina Tar Heels will go on the road Tuesday night to face off with the 3-0 Iowa Hawkeyes at 7:35 PM ET in Carver-Hawkeye Arena. You can tune into the matchup on ESPN as the second of three dynamite CBB games. The third-ranked Hawkeyes host as 3-point favorites and we’re expecting plenty of points with a 157 over/under. Let’s dive into how this one will go down and who will end up covering the spread. Make sure to check out the rest of my CBB Picks and Predictions for the upcoming week of games.

Trends

  • Tar Heels are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
  • Hawkeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
  • Under is 6-0 in Tar Heels last 6 overall.
  • Under is 4-0 in Hawkeyes last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.

When The North Carolina Tar Heels Have The Ball

The Tar Heels are coming off a 69-67 loss in the Maui Invitational Championship to the Texas Longhorns in a game they nearly came back in. They were down 40-28 at halftime and nearly stormed all the way back. This team is yet to figure out who will take over and be the primary scorer. Garrison Brooks and Armando Bacot are the anchors of this team down low and both will average around 12 points and 8 rebounds per game. R.J. Davis, and Caleb Love have averaged double-figures at guard, but neither has been consistent.

Leaky Black and Day’Ron Sharpe are two massive role players that have been phenomenal this season, making up for a lot of the mistakes of others. Sharpe is a dynamic rebounder and defender while Black does all the dirty work and can shoot it from the perimeter. This is a talented Tar Heels team that needs to figure out who belongs where. That has a lot to do with Caleb Love finding consistency at PG.

When The Iowa Hawkeyes Have The Ball

The Hawkeyes come in as the third most potent offense in basketball according to KenPom, holding a 115.4 AdjO. They’re led by senior big man Luka Garza, who came in second a year ago in the Naismith National Player of the Year voting. He’s been a man on fire early in the season, averaging an insane 34 points per game with 9.7 rebounds and 2.7 blocks. He’s only played 26 minutes per game while putting up those numbers, and it’s scary to say they might be sustainable.

Joe Wieskamp is as solid as they come on the wing and he’s going to average 10+ points per game with his usual five to six rebounds. Freshman Patrick McCaffrey has put up 11/4/2 in his first three games and looks to be an excellent and much-needed role player. CJ Frederick will never light up the scoreboard, but he’s the heart and soul of these guards and an excellent distributor for Garza.

Spread Prediction

The Pick: Iowa -3

The Hawkeyes are the righteous favorites in this game and I like them to win by at least five or six points. Even if it’s a close game to the wire, Iowa has two guys over 90% from the line and they will stretch the leads with late free throws. Garza has been unstoppable thus far and he’ll finally be stretched out. Expect 30+ points and 10+ rebounds. The Tar Heels are talented, but it’s obvious that they don’t have it all figured out. I’ll take the Iowa Hawkeyes to win this game by more than three points.

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Total Prediction

The Pick: Under 157
Final Score Prediction: Iowa 79, North Carolina 73

The Hawkeyes don’t play great defense, but they also have Luka Garza in the middle who likes to block a ton of shots. It keeps teams uncomfortable and the Tar Heels aren’t a team I’m going to bet can get it done from the perimeter. This is a high number and while hard to bet an under, it’s the right move. The under is the bet to make in this game down to 156, though my confidence is higher in the spread bet.

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