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NFL WEEK 7 Review

27 October 2020

Last updated: 02 November 2020 at 9:35 am

TJ Calkins NFL Weekly

I don’t know how to quantify it, but I could feel the tides turning heading into this week  after a rough start to the season. I said as much leading into this week’s NFL expert picks against spread, and those Sunday plays did not disappoint, landing a perfect 4-0. Let’s run through them. 

✅ Win – Lions +2.5
This game had a screwy enough ending, but all signs pointed to a Lions cover in any event. I believe there were only five minutes of game time when they were not covering. With the underdog Lions leading by two points, Falcon running back Todd Gurley attempted to stay out of the end zone on a run, but was unable to.

This would have allowed the Falcons to kill the clock, kick a field goal and leave with a one point victory. Obviously the Lions needed to score once more late, and they were able to, as Stafford capped the game winning drive with a touchdown to Hockenson. 

✅ Win – Packers -3.5
This was a no sweat easy winner. The Packers first touchdown came in the game’s sixth minute and they were on cruise control from that point forward, covering the entire way. The 35-20 final makes the game seem closer than it actually was.

Win – Titans Over 50.5
The 27-24 final makes this appear to be a narrow cover, but there were just seven points scored in the last eighteen minutes of the game, and those came early in the fourth quarter to secure the win. We were robbed of overtime when Gostkowski missed a 45 yard field goal at the end of regulation in what was a phenomenal game to watch. 

✅ Win – Seahawks Over 57.5
This was a fun one on Sunday night, and the 37-34 final brough all the scoring action I thought we’d see. 98 passing attempts and 71 points is the recipe for success for both over betting and enjoyable watching. 

❌ Loss – Bears +6
Monday night was the exact opposite of Sunday night, as the Rams won 24-10. Nick Foles was terrible for the Bears, but he got no help from Matt Nagy. The Rams are more susceptible to the run but Nagy called a 40-14 pass/run split. This poor play calling also buried our prop bets on David Montgomery.

The 4-1 week brings us to 14-20 on the season. 

Prop Play Review

We had a modest win this week, with Monday night moving the week from a 5-2 mark to 5-4 as Nagy let us down with the play calling. Props now sit at 11-11 through two weeks. 


NFL Predictions at USsportsbonus.com
NFL Week 7 Review – 2019

A second consecutive rough week for me, with apologies. I definitely had a couple blunders this week, but I am simply running bad in both betting and DFS and will look to tighten it up this week.

The Good

The Jaguars cruised to a comfortable win in Cincinnati on Sunday, and the over got there as well. As expected, the Jaguars wore down the Bengals on both sides of the ball and the second half fully belonged to Jacksonville.

The Ravens cruised to an easy win over the Seahawks, and it’s somewhat surprising how easy of a win this was. The expectation was a close game in which the rushing of quarterback Lamar Jackson would be the difference, but only the latter rang true as Seattle could not keep up.

The Bad

The Bills allowed the lowly Dolphins to be competitive and didn’t sniff a cover. My error was failing to consider the Dolphins have more of an attainable weekly ceiling with quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick reinserted into the starting lineup. A 10 point loss is a ceiling game for these Dolphins. Fitzpatrick has a track record of some big games but also maddening multi turnover games, making a median outcome nearly unidentifiable.

The Eagles play unfortunately took a large hit when Amari Cooper recovered late in the week and was active and productive for the game. The Eagles dug a hole with fumbles on their first two possessions resulting in Dallas touchdowns on their first two possessions and were down 14 just six minutes into the game. The comfortability of playing with a lead saw Dallas beat the Eagles with balance for the remainder of the game, and this one was decided as a loss in the first six minutes.

The Sunday night game went poorly and I was looking forward to a close game on Monday night. Jets quarterback Sam Darnold was having none of that concept and proceeded to play the worst game of his career, turning it over five times, looking absolutely lost and producing just 85 yards of offense with no scoring drives. Nevermind Darnold’s worst game, this might have been the worst quarterback play in any game in recent memory, and that includes Nathan Peterman playing in games. Darnold was even caught by the MNF live mic on the bench saying he was “seeing ghosts” in the pocket. This pay never had a chance.

The Unfortunate

The Ari/NYG over 49 was cruising early, and the teams combined for 31 first half points and ultimately landing on 48. The comedy of errors didn’t truly begin until the second half. Giants quarterback Daniel Jones could not capitalize on the best individual matchup in football for tight end Evan Engram and fumbled away two chances of points on the board. Additionally kicker Aldrick Rosas missed a PAT distance field goal and the Cardinals were content keeping it slow protecting a lead.

The Raiders had a great stylistic matchup with the Packers. Two teams that want to run the ball and the Raiders being far better at stopping the run. The Raiders ran plenty and competently, with running backs accumulating 155 yards on 31 carries while holding the Packers to 57 yards rushing on 18 carries. If we had only those statistics and were given the option to bet the game after the fact, the Raiders would appear to be a play of the year candidate. Well, they weren’t, they simply couldn’t stop the big play in the passing game. They allowed a silly 429 passing yards and six total touchdowns to Aaron Rodgers on just 31 attempts, who hadn’t accounted for more than two scores in any game this season.

We knew the 49ers were going to have a substantial advantage on the defensive side of the ball. Well, they did and it was as much and more than we could have hoped. They pitched a shutout in the 9-0 win. As worried, Jimmy Garoppolo was ineffective, but it wasn’t a maddening turnover that sunk this play, it was general ineptitude. The team had four red zone trips in this one, and scored a total of 9 points, laying 9.5, in a 9-0 win.

Last but certainly not maddeningly least are the Chargers +2. Now this line moved to 2.5 by game time, and even 3 in some spots, so here’s to hoping you got a push out of it. Down three late in the game, the Chargers had 1st and goal from the 1 yard line. After penalties on each team on consecutive plays, the Chargers once again had 1st and goal at the 1. Handoff to Melvin Gordon, touchdown… wait, upon review the zebras determine the ball didn’t cross the plane. Okay let’s do this again, Melvin same way and tou.. omg he fumbled. Tennesee recovers, game over. Sick sick sick disgusting.

3-7 on the brutal NFL week 7.

 

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