NFL WEEK 7 Review
22 October 2019
A second consecutive rough week for me, with apologies. I definitely had a couple blunders this week, but I am simply running bad in both betting and DFS and will look to tighten it up this week.
The Jaguars cruised to a comfortable win in Cincinnati on Sunday, and the over got there as well. As expected, the Jaguars wore down the Bengals on both sides of the ball and the second half fully belonged to Jacksonville.
The Ravens cruised to an easy win over the Seahawks, and it’s somewhat surprising how easy of a win this was. The expectation was a close game in which the rushing of quarterback Lamar Jackson would be the difference, but only the latter rang true as Seattle could not keep up.
The Bills allowed the lowly Dolphins to be competitive and didn’t sniff a cover. My error was failing to consider the Dolphins have more of an attainable weekly ceiling with quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick reinserted into the starting lineup. A 10 point loss is a ceiling game for these Dolphins. Fitzpatrick has a track record of some big games but also maddening multi turnover games, making a median outcome nearly unidentifiable.
The Eagles play unfortunately took a large hit when Amari Cooper recovered late in the week and was active and productive for the game. The Eagles dug a hole with fumbles on their first two possessions resulting in Dallas touchdowns on their first two possessions and were down 14 just six minutes into the game. The comfortability of playing with a lead saw Dallas beat the Eagles with balance for the remainder of the game, and this one was decided as a loss in the first six minutes.
The Sunday night game went poorly and I was looking forward to a close game on Monday night. Jets quarterback Sam Darnold was having none of that concept and proceeded to play the worst game of his career, turning it over five times, looking absolutely lost and producing just 85 yards of offense with no scoring drives. Nevermind Darnold’s worst game, this might have been the worst quarterback play in any game in recent memory, and that includes Nathan Peterman playing in games. Darnold was even caught by the MNF live mic on the bench saying he was “seeing ghosts” in the pocket. This pay never had a chance.
The Ari/NYG over 49 was cruising early, and the teams combined for 31 first half points and ultimately landing on 48. The comedy of errors didn’t truly begin until the second half. Giants quarterback Daniel Jones could not capitalize on the best individual matchup in football for tight end Evan Engram and fumbled away two chances of points on the board. Additionally kicker Aldrick Rosas missed a PAT distance field goal and the Cardinals were content keeping it slow protecting a lead.
The Raiders had a great stylistic matchup with the Packers. Two teams that want to run the ball and the Raiders being far better at stopping the run. The Raiders ran plenty and competently, with running backs accumulating 155 yards on 31 carries while holding the Packers to 57 yards rushing on 18 carries. If we had only those statistics and were given the option to bet the game after the fact, the Raiders would appear to be a play of the year candidate. Well, they weren’t, they simply couldn’t stop the big play in the passing game. They allowed a silly 429 passing yards and six total touchdowns to Aaron Rodgers on just 31 attempts, who hadn’t accounted for more than two scores in any game this season.
We knew the 49ers were going to have a substantial advantage on the defensive side of the ball. Well, they did and it was as much and more than we could have hoped. They pitched a shutout in the 9-0 win. As worried, Jimmy Garoppolo was ineffective, but it wasn’t a maddening turnover that sunk this play, it was general ineptitude. The team had four red zone trips in this one, and scored a total of 9 points, laying 9.5, in a 9-0 win.
Last but certainly not maddeningly least are the Chargers +2. Now this line moved to 2.5 by game time, and even 3 in some spots, so here’s to hoping you got a push out of it. Down three late in the game, the Chargers had 1st and goal from the 1 yard line. After penalties on each team on consecutive plays, the Chargers once again had 1st and goal at the 1. Handoff to Melvin Gordon, touchdown… wait, upon review the zebras determine the ball didn’t cross the plane. Okay let’s do this again, Melvin same way and tou.. omg he fumbled. Tennesee recovers, game over. Sick sick sick disgusting.
3-7 on the brutal NFL week 7.