• Thu
    Jun 17
  • 12:00 am
    NYI
    TBL
    118
    -139
  • Wed
    Jun 16
  • 11:30 pm
    PHI
    ATL
    -278
    230
  • Tue
    Jun 15
  • FINAL
    BKN
    MIL
    125
    -149
  • Mon
    Jun 14
  • FINAL
    VGK
    MTL
    -250
    200
  • FINAL
    ATL
    PHI
    120
    -145
  • Sun
    Jun 13
  • FINAL
    DEN
    PHX
    105
    -130
  • FINAL
    TBL
    NYI
    -189
    155
  • FINAL
    MIL
    BKN
    110
    -135
  • Fri
    Jun 11
  • FINAL
    DEN
    PHX
    -130
    105
  • FINAL
    ATL
    PHI
    100
    -120
  • Thu
    Jun 10
  • FINAL
    UTA
    LAC
    -149
    125
  • FINAL
    VGK
    COL
    -114
    -103
  • Wed
    Jun 9
  • FINAL
    PHX
    DEN
    -278
    210
  • FINAL
    NYI
    BOS
    118
    -139
  • Tue
    Jun 8
  • FINAL
    UTA
    LAC
    -175
    145
  • FINAL
    COL
    VGK
    -145
    120
  • FINAL
    PHI
    ATL
    -179
    148
  • FINAL
    CAR
    TBL
    100
    -120
  • Mon
    Jun 7
  • FINAL
    PHX
    DEN
    -189
    155
  • FINAL
    BKN
    MIL
    -141
    116
  • FINAL
    BOS
    NYI
    -182
    155

NFL Week 16 Prop Betting Plays

December 26, 2020

NFL

With four games already played as Sunday rolls around, we have a shorter Sunday slate of NFL picks than normal. We have also seen some adjustments on prop lines for receivers, putting an end to some of our streaks of overs on particular players.

We also have Browns props off the board after they have lost their entire wide receiving corps to COVID close contact for this game. If and when we get a rushing prop on Nick Chubb, anything in double digits is a playable over. The receiving yardage overs on Derrick Willies and Kareem Hunt are likely to be attractive as well. What we do currently have are what I deem to be very friendly prop lines on three running backs rushing totals, let’s look at those.

Quick Links

LeVeon Bell

Betting Play: Over 56.5 rushing yards

Bell will continue to operate as the primary back after taking over in relief of the injured Clyde Edwards-Helaire last week. We do not have a strong sample size on Bell in the KC backfield, but we do have more than half a season of output per touch. He has only had two games in which he received more than 11 carries. One of those games was last week in relief, and he hit at least 60 rushing yards in both of those contests. The Falcons defense is subtly not awful, but it is certainly not a spot to shy away from playing an over. The Bell rushing prop is at 56.5 yards, and I think with the projected volume (approximately 15 carries, the precise number he got last week) he does not have to do much with the touches to cruise over. Even at his low 4 yards per carry average on the year, that would put him on 60 yards and I think there is room for quite a bit more in this matchup, in both opportunity and production.

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Jonathan Taylor

Betting Play: Over 53.5 rushing yards

The rookie back has forcibly taken over lead duties in Indy, and has rewarded the team for the too slow to arrive promotion. In the four games since taking over the higher volume responsibilities, he has had at least 13 carries and at least 83 rushing yards in every game. Now he enters a more difficult matchup with the Steelers, but the adjustment on his prop line oversells the matchup considerably. The prop is set just 53.5 rushing yards. This is where we note that matchup does not matter for him in terms of this prop, only volume. In all nine games this season where he has received at least 12 carries, he has produced at least 57 rushing yards in every single game. The trend has a perfect hit rate and it is a near certainty he continues to receive the volume, so this is simply an over to not over think and fire away at.

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