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NFL Week 15 Betting Picks and Predictions

18 December 2020

NFL Betting Picks

As the regular season winds down, we have just one or two weeks where the majority of our betting plays will be truly identifiable early in the week. In the coming two weeks, more so week 17 than week 16, we will have some playoff seeding decided and will see teams rest key players, but often do not get that news until later in the week.

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With no worries on that front this week, we can operate as normal. This week also introduces the late season Saturday night football double header. This has become commonplace but all of our plays will come from the shortened Sunday slate this week. We have a healthy amount of NFL Picks on Sunday however, with four games and five plays making the cut, so let’s get to them.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

1PM EST
Opening Line: Colts -6.5 and 52
Current Line: Colts -7 and 51

To say that the Texans are a bad team gotten worse due to injury and suspension would be an understatement. To say they are completely reeling and will be hard pressed to be competitive with any competent team would be a more accurate depiction of their current state. The Bears were unable to blow out any opponent this season, but the Texans helped remedy that as they allowed a 36-7 drubbing.

On offense, the Texans remain unable to competently run the football and are now hindered by the decimation of their wide receiving corps. The have lost Will Fuller to suspension and Randall Cobb to injury for the remainder of the season. They also have Brandin Cooks and Keke Coutee banged up and certainly not playing at 100%. Chad Hansen is currently operating as their top wide out. This is somewhere between patchwork and rag tag and will simply not be a recipe for scoring points.

The Houston defense might make the offense look good. They continue to let running backs feast on them and additionally allowed low end Mitchell Trubisky to have arguably the best game of his career last week. Combine the Texans rushing defense deficiency with the matchup this week, and we get a nightmare or a perfect dream, depending on the perspective. The Colts have elevated highly talented rookie Jonathan Taylor to lead back duties, and he ran all over the Raiders last week in an easy win.

The matchup this week is as cake as they come, and Taylor and the Colts will control this game front to back, as Houston will be both unable to stop the Colts, nor will they be able to remotely keep up a scoring pace. Take the Colts to roll once again against a non competitive Texans team.

Betting Play: Colts -7

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Seattle Seahawks at Washington Football Team

1PM EST
Opening Line: Seahawks -3 and 45.5
Current Line: Seahawks -6 and 44.5

This game might now bring the most non sensical line movement of the week. The Seahawks woes over the last month and a half were covered up by a home matchup with the Jets last week. They have lost three of their last six and four of their last eight, and are just 1-3 in their last four road games. The only win came against a reeling and bottom of the barrel Eagles team.

They also lost at home to a similar Giants team two weeks ago, and are simply not the team that was taking the league by storm to start the season. Additionally the Seahawks have just two wins by more than one score on the season, and those were both in home games. Even if this matchup were against a pushover team, the Seahawks are simply not a sound bet on the road, let alone on the East coast for an early start.

The Football Team is dealing with some injuries, most notably to high end rookie running back Antonio Gibson. I expect him to be out this week, but there is still a chance he plays. Quarterback Alex Smith is also banged up, but he is more likely to play. Even if Smith misses, there is no mammoth fall off to Dwayne Haskins at this point in their respective careers, and it is not the offensive side of the ball that makes WFT attractive as a home dog here.

WFT has won four straight, and it has been on the back of their defense. They have not allowed an opponent to eclipse 17 points over that span and the defense is playing at the highest level of any team in the league at the moment.

Even if they give up a few additional points this week, and even if they lose the game, Seattle is not a team that pulls away in games nor wins them decisively. The opening line of getting a field goal was an attractive one, but with the line movement and now at +6, it moves them to must play territory.

Betting Play: WFT +6

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Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints

4:25PM EST
Opening Line: Chiefs -3 and 51
Current Line: Chiefs -3 and 51.5

This is certainly the game of the week by any measure, and one quite sure to entertain. By some small miracle, Patrick Mahomes played only four games indoors in his college career and has played just one such game thus far in his NFL career.

The college games brought the video game numbers you might expect and he went for a tick under 400 total yards last year in Detroit. We are going to get more of that, and the Tyreek Hill speed that simply can’t be touched on grass, will even be more dangerous in the dome.

The 12-1 Chiefs have won eight straight and bring an 11 point average margin of win to the table. They are quite obviously the class of the league and laying just three points in this spot feels disrespectful. They are additionally a perfect 6-0 on the road, despite their defense having a little bit of a tougher time away from home of late. They allowed 31 and 24 points in their last two road wins, and I expect a very similar outcome in this game.

The Saints defense has played well for the majority of this season, but the matchup they are tasked with this week is essentially unfair. The play of Mahomes and Kelce combined with the speed of Hill will simply be too much for them to hope to contain. What New Orleans will need to do is keep a scoring pace if they are to keep this game close. They will do just that as Taysom Hill has performed admirably since taking over, and we saw last week he is far from incapable of getting Kamara involved in the passing game as well.

It’s Hill’s rushing however that will bring explosive plays and keep drives alive, and I think it fair to expect the winning team to be easily into the 30s in this game. Of course that will be the Chiefs and this sets up for an easy favorite with over game. Be sure to tune in for this one, it will be fun.

Betting Plays: Chiefs -3 and over 51.5

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Cleveland Browns at New York Giants

8:20PM EST
Opening Line: Browns -3 and 46
Current Line: Browns -4.5 and 44.5

The Giants run of improbable wins was halted last week, as the anemic offense was simply too anemic to keep up with the Cardinals at home. Daniel Jones and top corner James Bradberry will be missing for the Giants, as well as offensive coordinator and play caller Jason Garrett.

In a favorable turn of events for Browns fans, this will mean unceremoniously fired former head coach Freddie Kitchens will be calling the plays for this anemic offense. As a Browns fan myself, it is fun to think about that level of incompetence at the helm for an opponent. Add in that journeyman Colt McCoy will be under center, and it becomes just a mouthwatering spot for the Browns defense.

The Browns offense shouldn’t have to do much in this one. After too much passing last week and not enough Nick Chubb, I expect them to get back to the basics and ride Chubb to an easy ball control win on the road. The more the Browns run, the more success they tend to find with the play action passing, and it won’t take the lighting up of the scoreboard that it took for many of their previous wins in this matchup.

The Giants simply can’t score enough on their defense to force that shootout score. I think the Browns easily win by multiple scores given the state of the Giants, and they are an easy play on Sunday Night.

Betting Play: Browns -4.5

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Other Game Predictions

Titans win and cover against Lions, over

Rams win and cover against Jets, under

Bucs win but no cover at Falcons, under

Dolphins win and cover against Pats, under

Vikings win and cover against Bears, over

Ravens win but no cover against Jags, over

Cardinals win and cover against Eagles, under

49ers win and cover at Cowboys, over


NFL Predictions at USsportsbonus.com
NFL Week 15 – 2019

Week 14 was full of injury carnage for skill position players, particularly wide receivers. The list of players injured last week includes but is not limited to Mike Evans, Alshon Jeffery, Rashaad Penny, Devante Parker, DJ Chark and Calvin Ridley. All of these players are a virtual certainty to miss week 15 and some the remainder of the season. Our task is to determine which of these players are truly difference makers for their respective offenses and which of these players can be reasonably replaced in their offense from a production standpoint.

Week 15 NFL Picks

There is something of a lack of offense in the league in general right now as we had another week without a single total opening at 50 points or more. Fortunately, this creates a couple over plays, a spot where we had success last week and we will go back to that well once again. Let’s get to the plays.


🔥 Play Of The Week 🔥

Houston Texans 8-5 at Tennessee Titans 8-5

1PM EST

Opening Line: Titans -1.5 and 47.5
Current Line: Titans -3 and 50

This is the most important game in both teams respective seasons and the winner will have full control of their own destiny in the AFC South and become a real favorite to be the division winner. The Titans have been one of, if not the single hottest team in football since they made the quarterback change to Ryan Tannehill. They are 6-1 with Tannehill as a starter and continue to run a high end balanced attack that is averaging 31.4 points per game. Derrick Henry also continues to roll over everyone in his path. He’s had four straight 100+ yard performances with seven touchdowns in those four games, and a total of 10 touchdowns in seven Tannehill starts. This is the team that no one wants to play right now. The Texans are coming off an ugly home loss to the Broncos in which rookie quarterback Drew Lock carved them up in his second career start. Going into Nashville is an ugly spot to try to bounce back and Deshaun Watson and Deandre Hopkins will need their best game of the season to at all keep pace with the Titans. This line will likely climb more throughout the week and it is one to get in early on.

Betting Pick: Titans -3
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6-7 at Detroit Lions 3-9-1

1PM EST

Opening Line: Buccaneers -4 and 47.5
Current Line: Buccaneers -3.5 and 47.5

The league’s most over friendly team travels to Detroit, who happens to be an over friendly team as well. 10 of the Bucs 13 games have gone over while 8 of 13 have gone over for the Lions. This column has had a point of emphasis in most weeks that the Buccaneers are built for high scoring, pass happy games. They are now missing Mike Evans, but I don’t believe he is a necessary part of their offense. He is a big play threat but has been an inefficient player for his entire career and what might be lost in a home run at some point in the game, is likely made up by a multitude of base hits. Jameis Winston will continue to lead a potent passing attack that creates points for his own team and the opponent’s by way of interceptions, as he is the league leader with seven more than second most. On the Lions side, it’s likely David Blough remains under center as Matthew Stafford continues to recover. He was serviceable in his lone home start but not as good on the road last week. The home game combined with a juicy matchup that his high end wide receivers can exploit should keep a steady scoring pace. Take the over and attack a pair of bad defenses.

Betting Pick: Over 47.5
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Chicago Bears 7-6 at Green Bay Packers 10-3

1PM EST

Opening Line: Packers -7 and 41
Current Line: Packers -4.5 and 41

The Bears offense is coming to life just a bit late in the season, and they are likely to get back run stuffer Akiem Hicks on the defensive side of the ball. The Packers continue to be an above average team, slightly overall better than the Bears, but the Packers record remains misleading. Of their ten wins, just three have come against winning teams and just one of their three losses have come against winning teams. The Packers offense is predicated on use of the running back and the presence of Hicks will be huge for the Bears. The Bears have found balance of late and are coming off of their two best offensive performances of the season. Neither team could find any offense in the 10-3 week 1 game and I think the Bears are more likely of the two to find improvement over that first matchup. The points are extremely attractive in what’s likely to be a tight divisional matchup in which scoring is difficult to come by. The Bears are an extremely live dog that was more attractive at opening line, but still attractive enough to play as is.

Betting Pick: Bears +4.5
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Houston Texans 8-5 at Tennessee Titans 8-5

1PM EST

Opening Line: Titans -1.5 and 47.5
Current Line: Titans -3 and 50

This is the most important game in both teams respective seasons and the winner will have full control of their own destiny in the AFC South and become a real favorite to be the division winner. The Titans have been one of, if not the single hottest team in football since they made the quarterback change to Ryan Tannehill. They are 6-1 with Tannehill as a starter and continue to run a high end balanced attack that is averaging 31.4 points per game. Derrick Henry also continues to roll over everyone in his path. He’s had four straight 100+ yard performances with seven touchdowns in those four games, and a total of 10 touchdowns in seven Tannehill starts. This is the team that no one wants to play right now. The Texans are coming off an ugly home loss to the Broncos in which rookie quarterback Drew Lock carved them up in his second career start. Going into Nashville is an ugly spot to try to bounce back and Deshaun Watson and Deandre Hopkins will need their best game of the season to at all keep pace with the Titans. This line will likely climb more throughout the week and it is one to get in early on.

Betting Pick: Titans -3
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Seattle Seahawks 10-3 at Carolina Panthers 5-8

1PM EST

Opening Line: Seahawks -4 and 48.5
Current Line: Seahawks -6 and 48.5

The Panthers continue to be extremely friendly to opponents from a points allowed perspective. Their current five game losing streak has seen them allow at least 24 points in every single game and an average of 31.2 in that span. They are a rudderless ship after the firing of Ron Rivera and it would be wholly surprising to see any sort of resurgence. The Seahawks are a clearly better squad, but their defense has been fairly easy to score on in their own right, allowing at least 24 points in 9 of 13 games, including their last two. We know the Seahawks call games to keep them close, but I don’t have any amount of faith in the Panthers to keep any game close from here on out, but I do have faith in the high end skill position players to keep points on the board in these losses. This matchup is also a prime bounce back spot for Russell Wilson after a bit of a dud last week, so take the over and enjoy the scoring pace.

Betting Pick: Over 48.5
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Jacksonville Jaguars 4-9 at Oakland Raiders 6-7

4:05PM EST

Opening Line: Raiders -4.5 and 44.5
Current Line: Raiders -6 and 45.5

In most weeks we’ve touched on the Raiders needing to be able to run the ball and have a neutral or positive game script in order to find success. It’s been a few weeks but they are set up to just that in this mouthwatering matchup for their ground game. The Jaguars are simply getting torched by the run, are mostly inept on offense and have now lost their best wide receiver in DJ Chark, and the players are clearly ready for the season to be over and for dead man walking head coach Doug Marrone to be fired. The Jags have lost five straight games with their offense averaging a pathetic 11 points per game… and that’s the better side of the ball. They’ve allowed at least 26 points in all five games and the average allowed in that span is 34.8 points. They aren’t playing high scoring games, they are just getting their doors blown off as they continue to mail it in. It is difficult to envision a scenario where the Jags aren’t a betting target in any of the final three weeks of the regular season, with this being the first leg. Josh Jacobs and co. will role on Jacksonville.

Betting Pick: Raiders -6
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Buffalo Bills 9-4 at Pittsburgh Steelers 8-5

8:20PM EST

Opening Line: Steelers -1 and 37
Current Line: Steelers -2 and 36.5

As you can surmise by the total, we have two of the league’s best defenses in this one. There is an inequity on the line though, as the Steelers are currently boasting one of the league’s worst offenses. Sure they are on a three game winning streak, but they are averaging just 19.7 points per game in that span and the offensive ceiling is completely capped with Duck Hodges under center. Those three wins have been a commendable one against the Browns but the other two were the Bengals and Cardinals who are a combined 4-21-1 and do not have threatening defenses. While the Buffalo offense won’t light up the Steeler defense, they are the side that is far more capable in this one. Buffalo will be able to smother Hodges and Conner and win a low scoring game with playoff implications on Sunday night. Getting a couple points is just a bonus here.

Betting Pick: Bills +2
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NBA Betting with TJ CalkinsTJ Calkins – NFL Expert

TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today. 

 

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