NFL Picks Week 15 – Picks Against the Spread

11 December 2019

NFL Betting Picks

Week 14 was full of injury carnage for skill position players, particularly wide receivers. The list of players injured last week includes but is not limited to Mike Evans, Alshon Jeffery, Rashaad Penny, Devante Parker, DJ Chark and Calvin Ridley. All of these players are a virtual certainty to miss week 15 and some the remainder of the season. Our task is to determine which of these players are truly difference makers for their respective offenses and which of these players can be reasonably replaced in their offense from a production standpoint. There is something of a lack of offense in the league in general right now as we had another week without a single total opening at 50 points or more. Fortunately, this creates a couple over plays, a spot where we had success last week and we will go back to that well once again. Let’s get to the plays.


🔥 Play Of The Week 🔥

Houston Texans 8-5 at Tennessee Titans 8-5

1PM EST

Opening Line: Titans -1.5 and 47.5
Current Line: Titans -3 and 50

This is the most important game in both teams respective seasons and the winner will have full control of their own destiny in the AFC South and become a real favorite to be the division winner. The Titans have been one of, if not the single hottest team in football since they made the quarterback change to Ryan Tannehill. They are 6-1 with Tannehill as a starter and continue to run a high end balanced attack that is averaging 31.4 points per game. Derrick Henry also continues to roll over everyone in his path. He’s had four straight 100+ yard performances with seven touchdowns in those four games, and a total of 10 touchdowns in seven Tannehill starts. This is the team that no one wants to play right now. The Texans are coming off an ugly home loss to the Broncos in which rookie quarterback Drew Lock carved them up in his second career start. Going into Nashville is an ugly spot to try to bounce back and Deshaun Watson and Deandre Hopkins will need their best game of the season to at all keep pace with the Titans. This line will likely climb more throughout the week and it is one to get in early on.

Betting Pick: Titans -3
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6-7 at Detroit Lions 3-9-1

1PM EST

Opening Line: Buccaneers -4 and 47.5
Current Line: Buccaneers -3.5 and 47.5

The league’s most over friendly team travels to Detroit, who happens to be an over friendly team as well. 10 of the Bucs 13 games have gone over while 8 of 13 have gone over for the Lions. This column has had a point of emphasis in most weeks that the Buccaneers are built for high scoring, pass happy games. They are now missing Mike Evans, but I don’t believe he is a necessary part of their offense. He is a big play threat but has been an inefficient player for his entire career and what might be lost in a home run at some point in the game, is likely made up by a multitude of base hits. Jameis Winston will continue to lead a potent passing attack that creates points for his own team and the opponent’s by way of interceptions, as he is the league leader with seven more than second most. On the Lions side, it’s likely David Blough remains under center as Matthew Stafford continues to recover. He was serviceable in his lone home start but not as good on the road last week. The home game combined with a juicy matchup that his high end wide receivers can exploit should keep a steady scoring pace. Take the over and attack a pair of bad defenses.

Betting Pick: Over 47.5
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Chicago Bears 7-6 at Green Bay Packers 10-3

1PM EST

Opening Line: Packers -7 and 41
Current Line: Packers -4.5 and 41

The Bears offense is coming to life just a bit late in the season, and they are likely to get back run stuffer Akiem Hicks on the defensive side of the ball. The Packers continue to be an above average team, slightly overall better than the Bears, but the Packers record remains misleading. Of their ten wins, just three have come against winning teams and just one of their three losses have come against winning teams. The Packers offense is predicated on use of the running back and the presence of Hicks will be huge for the Bears. The Bears have found balance of late and are coming off of their two best offensive performances of the season. Neither team could find any offense in the 10-3 week 1 game and I think the Bears are more likely of the two to find improvement over that first matchup. The points are extremely attractive in what’s likely to be a tight divisional matchup in which scoring is difficult to come by. The Bears are an extremely live dog that was more attractive at opening line, but still attractive enough to play as is.

Betting Pick: Bears +4.5
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Houston Texans 8-5 at Tennessee Titans 8-5

1PM EST

Opening Line: Titans -1.5 and 47.5
Current Line: Titans -3 and 50

This is the most important game in both teams respective seasons and the winner will have full control of their own destiny in the AFC South and become a real favorite to be the division winner. The Titans have been one of, if not the single hottest team in football since they made the quarterback change to Ryan Tannehill. They are 6-1 with Tannehill as a starter and continue to run a high end balanced attack that is averaging 31.4 points per game. Derrick Henry also continues to roll over everyone in his path. He’s had four straight 100+ yard performances with seven touchdowns in those four games, and a total of 10 touchdowns in seven Tannehill starts. This is the team that no one wants to play right now. The Texans are coming off an ugly home loss to the Broncos in which rookie quarterback Drew Lock carved them up in his second career start. Going into Nashville is an ugly spot to try to bounce back and Deshaun Watson and Deandre Hopkins will need their best game of the season to at all keep pace with the Titans. This line will likely climb more throughout the week and it is one to get in early on.

Betting Pick: Titans -3
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Seattle Seahawks 10-3 at Carolina Panthers 5-8

1PM EST

Opening Line: Seahawks -4 and 48.5
Current Line: Seahawks -6 and 48.5

The Panthers continue to be extremely friendly to opponents from a points allowed perspective. Their current five game losing streak has seen them allow at least 24 points in every single game and an average of 31.2 in that span. They are a rudderless ship after the firing of Ron Rivera and it would be wholly surprising to see any sort of resurgence. The Seahawks are a clearly better squad, but their defense has been fairly easy to score on in their own right, allowing at least 24 points in 9 of 13 games, including their last two. We know the Seahawks call games to keep them close, but I don’t have any amount of faith in the Panthers to keep any game close from here on out, but I do have faith in the high end skill position players to keep points on the board in these losses. This matchup is also a prime bounce back spot for Russell Wilson after a bit of a dud last week, so take the over and enjoy the scoring pace.

Betting Pick: Over 48.5
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Jacksonville Jaguars 4-9 at Oakland Raiders 6-7

4:05PM EST

Opening Line: Raiders -4.5 and 44.5
Current Line: Raiders -6 and 45.5

In most weeks we’ve touched on the Raiders needing to be able to run the ball and have a neutral or positive game script in order to find success. It’s been a few weeks but they are set up to just that in this mouthwatering matchup for their ground game. The Jaguars are simply getting torched by the run, are mostly inept on offense and have now lost their best wide receiver in DJ Chark, and the players are clearly ready for the season to be over and for dead man walking head coach Doug Marrone to be fired. The Jags have lost five straight games with their offense averaging a pathetic 11 points per game… and that’s the better side of the ball. They’ve allowed at least 26 points in all five games and the average allowed in that span is 34.8 points. They aren’t playing high scoring games, they are just getting their doors blown off as they continue to mail it in. It is difficult to envision a scenario where the Jags aren’t a betting target in any of the final three weeks of the regular season, with this being the first leg. Josh Jacobs and co. will role on Jacksonville.

Betting Pick: Raiders -6
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Buffalo Bills 9-4 at Pittsburgh Steelers 8-5

8:20PM EST

Opening Line: Steelers -1 and 37
Current Line: Steelers -2 and 36.5

As you can surmise by the total, we have two of the league’s best defenses in this one. There is an inequity on the line though, as the Steelers are currently boasting one of the league’s worst offenses. Sure they are on a three game winning streak, but they are averaging just 19.7 points per game in that span and the offensive ceiling is completely capped with Duck Hodges under center. Those three wins have been a commendable one against the Browns but the other two were the Bengals and Cardinals who are a combined 4-21-1 and do not have threatening defenses. While the Buffalo offense won’t light up the Steeler defense, they are the side that is far more capable in this one. Buffalo will be able to smother Hodges and Conner and win a low scoring game with playoff implications on Sunday night. Getting a couple points is just a bonus here.

Betting Pick: Bills +2
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NBA Betting with TJ CalkinsTJ Calkins – NFL Expert

TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today. 

 

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