NFL MVP Odds – Russell Wilson Now The Favorite

October 14, 2020

Through five weeks of the NFL season, the Seattle Seahawks have been one of the best teams in the NFL. Their 5-0 start has propelled them to the top of the incredibly competitive NFC West. It has also propelled Russell Wilson to the top of the race for the league’s MVP award. And with updated odds suggesting he is the frontrunner to win MVP, it is worth asking if he can keep up this pace.

After Seattle’s Week 5 win over the Minnesota Vikings, Russell Wilson is at even odds to win the NFL’s MVP award. Before the season, he was at +800 odds to take home the award. With Wilson lighting up defenses left and right so far this season, it makes sense that NFL picks to win MVP have been largely concentrated on him.

Behind Wilson in the MVP race are quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers at +300 and Patrick Mahomes at +600. Josh Allen of the Bills and Lamar Jackson are further back at +1600 each to win this year’s MVP. But in looking at the schedule for these teams for the remainder of the season, one has to wonder if Wilson’s stranglehold on the MVP will last.

On one hand, Wilson still has three games to go against the worst division in the NFL. That division is the NFC East, and the Seahawks still have games to look forward to against the Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Football Team and New York Giants. Those games should boost his chances significantly, as all three teams have shown plenty of ineptitude over the first five weeks of the season.

On the other hand, Wilson has yet to face any division opponents this season. The NFC West is an absolute gauntlet this season. And with six games coming up against the LA Rams, San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals, Wilson might finally play some competition that has the potential to put a dent in his MVP chances.

If there was another player who could snatch the MVP from Wilson, it would have to be Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers, through four games, has thrown 13 touchdown passes and zero interceptions in 2020. Wilson’s production has been greater, with 19 touchdowns and three interceptions through five games. But Rodgers could get hot and match Wilson from a productivity standpoint.

Rodgers also has the benefit of playing in a softer division than Wilson does. The Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings have already shown no ability to slow Rodgers down, while the Chicago Bears are overmatched at the quarterback position against Green Bay. If you got the early number on Wilson to win MVP before the season, Rodgers would make a decent hedge at his current price.

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NFL Betting FAQ

When is NFL MVP awarded?

The NFL MVP award is given out the week leading up to the Super Bowl. The league does an awards show of sorts where they give out all of their major awards for the year. Recent winners of the MVP award have been Matt Ryan, Cam Newton and Tom Brady. This year, it could come down to Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson to claim the award.

Does the MVP usually win the Super Bowl?

The results of league MVPs in the NFL playoffs are usually mixed. On one hand, players like Tom Brady have earned the MVP en route to championships in the past. But quarterbacks like Cam Newton and Matt Ryan have won the award only to serve up lackluster performances in the Super Bowl.

What does hedging mean?

Hedging a bet means to place a second bet that guarantees a profit. In this NFL betting scenario, wagering on Russell Wilson to win MVP before the season and Aaron Rodgers during the season would all but guarantee a profit based on their early season performances. Some bettors prefer to hedge, while others would rather continue hoping their original wager pans out.

Jay Sanin
Jay Sanin is a sports writer and broadcaster from Albany, NY. He has covered sports betting and the gambling industry since 2013.