NBA Playoff Bets and Predictions, Week Of 9/20

September 21, 2020

Friday Betting Play

Betting Play: Heat +3.5

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics

8:30PM EST

Opening Line: Celtics -2 and 214
Current Line: Celtics -3.5 and 213.5

It has become a bit mind blowing to me that the public wagers fairly heavily on the Celtics and moves the line in that direction in every game in this series. We have enough of a sample to see clear trends, and there is a clear trend. With four games completed, we can somewhat safely say that if Boston doesn’t have a double digit lead late in the game, Jimmy Butler and the Heat will simply go ahead and take the game away. The lone Celtic win was by 11 points, while the three Heat wins were by a combined 11 points. That lone Celtic win was also a night where the Heat were flat and their top players simply had a poor outing, which will happen in the Association. Putting my cards on the table and admitting I am now taking a somewhat rudimentary approach to the rest of this series. I believe with every fiber of my being the Heat win one of the next two games. If we assume this comes to fruition, we are looking at a split at worst and can even see the Heat lose today, win on Sunday and still win both bets. Enough on the looking ahead though, we are likely to see a Heat win and a close out tonight, and we even get more than a possession of cushion with 3.5 points in the unlikely event Boston takes a close game.

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Wednesday Review and Thursday Thought

Wednesday went well for us, and it was a somewhat odd game. Odd in the sense that Miami held a small lead for what I am remembering to be the entire game. It did turn out to be a one possession game, as the Heat won 112-109, going up 3-1 in the series and pushing the Celtics to the brink. Jimmy Butler was the man once again, Goran Dragic bounced back and Tyler Herro put on a shooting clinic. I don’t believe these Celtics to be in the head space to come back from a deficit like this, and I expect this series to end on Friday night.

The win brings us to 9-8 and 83-65 on the full season.

On Thursday, the Lakers attempt to go up 3-1 like the Heat did the night before. This series has become a dog or pass series in every game, as Denver has essentially won the last two games, but the Anthony Davis heroics to close Game 2 have the Lakers leading 2-1 instead of the Nuggets. I can’t quite put enough faith in the Nuggets to take them even with the points, but I truly feel we are at a dog or pass spot in this series, given the Nuggets showing. I lean towards the points here but no dedicated play today. Check back tomorrow for a probable play.

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