NBA Week 18 (Feb 17- Feb 23) – Updated With Daily Picks!
February 18, 2020
We entered the All Star break with a 61-47 record against the spread on the season, and will be looking to close the year out strong for a highly successful season.
Saturday Against The Spread Play
Philadelphia 76ers 35-21 at Milwaukee Bucks 47-8
Opening Line: Bucks -8.5 and 226.5
Current Line: Bucks -8.5 and 226.5
Okay, it is beyond my comprehension how there has been no adjustment to account for the lack of effectiveness of the 76ers on the road when making lines. It’s still not that they’re just better at home. They are legitimately terrible on the road and legitimately elite at home. While they are the home kings of the league, their 9-19 road record is only topped in ineptitude by six other teams. Considering this is a team 14 games over .500 overall, it’s just a mind numbing split but there is no reason to think anything changes anytime soon. Now they get the task of playing at the league’s best team in Milwaukee, where the Bucks are 25-3. The Bucks lead the league in home scoring and blow the field away in point differential per game, as their +13.1 differential is 2.5 points better than second best. The 76ers on the road are eight worst in the league, averaging -5 per contest and despite the 76ers strong overall record, this has the makings of a blowout and is a wholly favorable line. Take the Bucks at home as they roll again.
The Raptors -7.5 were in firm control of this game throughout, and were covering for the entirety of the second half. The 118-101 final brought us home a sweat free cover.
The win brings us to 63-47 on the season.
Friday Against The Spread Play
Phoenix Suns 22-33 at Toronto Raptors 40-15
Opening Line: Raptors -7.5 and 228.5
Current Line: Raptors -7.5 and 228.5
The Suns were not playing their best ball heading into break, and have to travel to play the league’s hottest team heading into break. The Suns lost six of eight overall and five of six on the road leading up to break while it was quite the opposite for the Raptors. The Raptors won 15 of their last 16 overall leading up to break and are currently riding a seven game home winning streak. Current form of these two teams is enough to make the Raptors a sound play, but the overall body of work is a reinforcing factor as well. They are 21-7 overall at home with a +8.2 differential average. The Suns are 11-15 away from home with a -3.4 differential. They do have a better record on the road than at home but this is a bit misleading, as their average differential at home is four points better. The Raptors are unlikely to miss a beat an pick off where they left off before the break against a young and not yet ready Suns team and are in line for an easy win and cover.
We got what we hoped for as the Bucks -12.5 rolled on the Pistons and were never in danger of not covering, let alone not winning the game. The starters came out with nearly four minutes left and a 31 point lead. The end of the bench gave away some of the cushion at the end but we still got a comfortable cover with the 126-106 final.
The win brings us to 62-47 on the season.
Thursday Against The Spread Play
Milwaukee Bucks 45-8 at Detroit Pistons 19-38
Opening Line: Bucks -12 and off
Current Line: Bucks -12.5 and off
The Bucks entered the All Star break with a loss in Indiana where they were missing Giannis Antetokounmpo and played a horrific first in which they almost recovered. They now will be back to full strength and the league’s best road team gets a much easier task in the Pistons. The Bucks have the league’s best road record and continue to lead the league in point differential in road games, averaging +10.0 per contest which is nearly four points per game better than the second best Mavericks. They are second in the league in points scored per road game, trailing the Mavericks by a half point, but clearly smoke the Mavericks in points allowed per contest.
The Pistons have lost 10 of their last 12 games leading up to the All Star break including four straight after shipping away Andre Drummond at the trade deadline. In the first two matchups between these two teams, the Pistons have not had the offensive firepower to keep pace with the Bucks as the Bucks won both matchups with an average differential of +19 for the Bucks, and this version of the Pistons is less than the one in the first two matchups. This should be an easy win and cover for the Bucks that sees the starters able to sit down the stretch if they so choose.
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