NBA Picks Week 16 (Feb 3- Feb 9) – Updated Daily!

Miami Heat 34-17 at Portland Trail Blazers 24-29

9PM EST

Opening Line: Blazers -2 and Off
Current Line: Blazers -3 and Off

The Blazers get a home game while riding the truly elite play of Damian Lillard. It is not a stretch to say he’s easily been the best player in the league over the last couple weeks. The Blazers are 14-11 at home overall and have won six of their last seven there and have scored at least 125 points in each of their last five home games. The Heat on the other hand have lost three of their last five overall, as well as four of their last seven, and will be without their top player Jimmy Butler for this matchup, as well as role players Tyler Herro and Meyers Leonard. I often talk about the Heat’s home/road splits and those certainly won’t improve while missing their most key piece. Despite being 17 games over .500, they remain two games under .500 away from home and are running into a hot team. The absence of Butler simply can’t be overstated here, nor can the scorching play of Lillard. I feel this line should be much wider than it is, so the Blazers are certainly a play to attack.

The 76ers -7.5 were dominant throughout, notching a 119-107 win that was not as close as the final score suggests. We had a sweat free win despite losing Embiid in game.

Memphis Grizzlies 26-25 at Philadelphia 76ers 31-21

7PM EST

Opening Line: 76ers -7.5 and Off
Current Line: 76ers -7.5 and Off

The 76ers, after being brutalized on the road in their last five road outings and five straight overall, finally get to head back to the comforts of home sweet home, where they carry the league’s best record at 22-2. Their defense shines through at home, as they are best in the league, allowing just 101.2 points per game and are second best in the league with a +10.6 average point differential. They are in dire need of this get right spot and the Grizzlies are a below average road team. They are middle of the pack in virtually every road statistic, but this matchup is more about the 76ers getting right at home and breaking the skid than it is about the Grizzlies. They truly are two different teams home and away and their lines will seemingly always be too small at home when favored as they are too small on the road as underdogs. The 76ers should also have newly acquired Alec Burks and Glenn Robinson available to bolster their depth. Take them to get right and beat on the Grizz.

The Bucks -8.5 held a comfortable lead throughout the game, but gave us a mini sweat in the last few minutes. Their 17 point lead at that point shrunk to 11, but never fell any lower than that. The 112-101 final gave us a relatively easy win.

The win brings us to 57-46 on the season.

Philadelphia 76ers 31-20 at Milwaukee Bucks 43-7

8PM EST

Opening Line: Bucks -9 and 227
Current Line: Bucks -8.5 and 227

Regulars of this column will notice a trend when the 76ers hit the road, particularly against the league’s best team by record in the Bucks. The 76ers continue to have the largest gap between home and road output and results in the league. They are 22-2 at home and 9-18 on the road, have lost three straight overall and four straight on the road.  They average -4.7 point differential per road game. The 76ers have traded for both Alec Burks and Glenn Robinson from the Warriors, but it seems highly unlikely those players suit up tonight. The Bucks on the other hand are sterling no matter where they play. They are 22-3 at home on the season, lead the league in points per game at 121.8 and most notably smoke the field in point differential per game, with a whopping +13.3. With the team being full strength in this one, we have a blowout in the making. Take the Bucks in an ideal matchup and a soft line.

The Raptors -6 allowed Indiana to play a close game on Wednesday, and the Pacers even lead very late in the game by a possession or two. Role player Justin Holiday had his best game in memory for the Pacers to keep it competitive late. Despite this fact, the Raptors stole away a 119-118 win, but failed to cover.

The Clippers -6.5 owned the second half and rolled as expected , 128-111. The Heat were never within double digits for the majority of the fourth quarter and this one came with little sweat.

The split on the day brings us to 56-46 on the season.

Indiana Pacers 31-19 at Toronto Raptors 36-14

730PM EST

Opening Line: Raptors -6 and 216
Current Line: Raptors -6 and 216.5

As we mentioned the Pacers and the growing pains they’re experiencing in the review section, they now have to travel to play the league’s hottest team. The Raptors have won 11 straight overall and the four home games in that stretch have been won by an average of 19 points. The Raptors are mostly healthy now after missing key pieces for a long stretch. They will continue to be without Marc Gasol and Norman Powell in this one, but these are just pieces and not difference makers. The Pacers will be without TJ Warren for the second straight game as he works to get cleared from the concussion protocol. The Pacers have lost three of four games overall and have lost two of three  (all at home) since the return of Oladipo. His minutes have been in the low 20s in each contest so far and the chemistry has not been instant. They now have to go on the road wjere they hover around .500 and play teams incredibly even in terms of point differential average. The Raptors are not elite by comparison to the top records of home teams, but they are a very good one. They sit at 18-7 with an average point differential of +8.6. That helps with the play here but the strength of it is on the current situation of each squad. The Raptors are playing their best ball of the season on this winning streak and the Pacers are trying to figure it out with the new variable in the equation. Take the Raptors to roll at home.

Miami Heat 34-15 at Los Angeles Clippers 35-15

10PM EST

Opening Line: Clippers -6.5 and 223
Current Line: Clippers -6.5 and 223

The Heat travel west to play the Clips, and the Heat continue to carry one of the widest gaps in the league in home vs road performance. They are 19 games over .500 at home with an average point differential of +10.6 while they are just exactly .500 on the road with a point differential average of -2. They are 3-6 on the season on the road against the Western Conference. The Clippers remain the best Western Conference home team with a record of 21-5 and an average point differential of +8.8. They are 9-1 at home against Eastern Conference opponents and the lone loss was to the elite Bucks and was without the services of both of their superstars as Kawhi Leonard and Paul George sat out that game. The Clippers are at full strength for this one while the Heat are missing role players Tyler Herro and Meyers Leonard and continue to be without Justice Winslow. This is a spot where the overall bodies of work project the matchup far closer than the home/road splits and averages do and is a spot to attack the Clippers to continue their perfect home mark against Eastern teams when they have their stars in the lineup.

The Wizards -5.5 suffered an embarrassing loss at home to the Warriors, 125-117. What makes this especially embarrassing is that D’angelo Russell did not play and yet the Warriors scored 125 for just the fifth time this season.

The Pacers -5.5 had an ugly loss to the skeleton crew Mavericks, 112-103. This isn’t a terrible loss like the Wizards, but there are definitely chemistry and growing pains as they try to reassimilate Victor Oladipo into his role. The Jazz are going through the same issues with Mike Conley and these teams will be avoid until these issues settle.

The Heat -2.5 on the other hand, absolutely rolled at home as they smashed Philly 137-106. Both of these teams will continue to be useful as they are quite predictive with their home and away splits.

1-2 on the day brings us to 55-45 on the season.

Golden State Warriors 11-39 at Washington Wizards 17-31

7PM EST

Opening Line: Wizards -4.5 and 236
Current Line Wizards -5.5 and 235.5

The Warriors are currently the league’s worst team by record, and D’angelo Russell, easily their leading scorer, is questionable for this contest. The Warriors have lost 15 of their 17 games overall and have an astoundingly bad 4-22 road mark on the season. On the road, the Warriors are fifth worst in points per game, eight worst in points allowed per game and second worst in point differential per game, with an ugly -10.1. The Wizards are far from world beaters, but they are a .500 team at home while they are far worse away from home at just 6-20 or .230. They are also fairly hot at home, winning six of their last seven home contests and star Bradley Beal has expressed his desire to steal away the 8 seed in the Eastern playoffs. Washington plays at a much much faster pace than the Warriors and the Warriors lack the scoring to keep up on the road even with Russell, much less without him. Also a recent boon for the Wizards is the return of big man Thomas Bryant, who was truly being replaced by replacement level talent in his absence. Look for the futility to continue for the Warriors as the Wizards roll in this one.

Dallas Mavericks 30-19 at Indiana Pacers 31-18

7PM EST

Opening Line: Pacers -4 and 218.5
Current Line Pacers -5.5 and 213.5

The Mavericks body of work for the season can be thrown out the window for this one and for the near future as superstar Luka Doncic remains out, and bench scorer Seth Curry is also out. While the Mavs are one of the better road teams in the league with Doncic in the lineup, a win at high end Indiana is just too much to ask for with this skeleton crew. The Pacers, already solidly a playoff team in the East, now have Victor Oladipo back in the lineup, albeit on a minutes restriction in the 20s. They are a tough out at home, with an 18-6 record lead by high end defense, as they allow the sixth fewest points per game at home. This will be the key as the Mavericks are missing key scorers and just will not be able to muster the necessary offense in this one. Take the Pacers against the temporary low end version of the Mavs

Philadelphia 76ers 31-19 at Miami Heat 33-15

730PM EST

Opening Line: Heat -3.5 and 213
Current Line Heat -2.5 and 212

The 76ers continue to have the distinction of being the only team in the league with an overall winning record (12 games over .500) and a losing road record. It is not a near .500 situation either, as they are 9-17 on the road and eight games under .500. This has been a trend to attack and one we will absolutely follow through on against one of the best home teams in the league. The Heat are similar to the 76ers in that they are miles better at home. The home record of 21-3 is third best in the league and accounts for all 18 games over .500. They are balanced as they are eighth best in the league in both scoring average and points allowed average per game. This translates to fourth best in the league of home scoring differential at +9.8 per contest. Philadelphia is even better with this home statistic, but they are a totally different team on the road. Their offense disappears as they score the sixth fewest points per game on the road and that translates to a -3.7 point differential per game. With no key injuries on either side, it’s somewhat mind boggling that this line has gone down instead of up. With that being the case, of three strong plays today, this is my favorite despite all of them being great plays. Take the Heat to be the next team to exploit the Sixers road woes.

Even without point guard Kemba Walker in the lineup, the Celtics -3 rolled to a blow out win over the road inept 76ers, 116-95. This was a sweat free play, which is always the goal.

The win brings us to 54-43 on the season.