Missouri Tigers vs Florida Gators Betting Picks and Predictions

The 2-2 Missouri Tigers will go on the road Saturday night to face off with the 2-1 Florida Gators at 7:30 PM ET in The Swamp. You can tune into the showdown on SEC Network. The Gators host the Tigers as 12-point favorites and we’re expecting a shootout with a 61.5 over/under. The Gators haven’t played a few weeks due to a COVID outbreak, so it’ll be interesting to see if they come out rusty or well-rested. The Tigers have been up and down through four games, but have shown they have the ability to compete with anyone. Let’s dive into how this one will go down and who will cover the spread. 

• Missouri is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games.
• Florida is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games when playing as the favourite.
• Missouri is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Florida’s last 5 games.

After starting the season with back-to-back losses to Alabama and Tennessee, the Tigers have done a full 180 and upset LSU and Kentucky in their last two games. It hasn’t been pretty, but the defense has stepped up and the offense has converted in key spots. Beating two strong SEC teams is no fluke. The Tigers are big on both sides of the trenches and don’t make it easy on anyone when their big men are doing their job. 

Freshman QB Connor Bazelac has been up and down, but he’s improved in every single game and is starting to look like a very promising youngster for Missouri. He’s completed 70% of his passes for 893 yards and four touchdowns with just one INT. He’s added 66 yards and a score on the ground and does a good job of using his size in yard to-go situations. If there’s a knock, it’s that he still has a lot of work when throwing the ball 20+ yards. That will slowly come, however, as he’s just a freshman and shows good instincts. He just doesn’t have the power in his arm yet and Missouri does a good job of keeping the routes short and intermediate. That just won’t work if Florida plays the elite defense they’re capable of. 

The Tigers offense runs through senior running back Larry Rountree III. He’s over 3,000 career rushing yards and is up to 396 and three touchdowns this season. He’s one of the few workhorses remaining in CFB and he has no problem with the workload. Rountree can run you over or run away from you. He just needs a solid performance from the line and some solid holes to run through. You then have Tyler Badie, who’s a waterbug of a running back that has a concrete hold in this offense. He’s carried it 28 times for 121 yards and a TD. The Gators have struggled mightily against the run early and Rountree/Badie is their best route to success in this game. 

When Bazelak does drop back, he has elite weapons at his disposal. Jalen Knox and Damon Hazelton are as good of a pair of receivers as any in the SEC. They both run phenomenal routes and have the ability to high-point the football. Knox has caught 19 balls for 216 yards with Hazelton grabbing 15 for 151 yards. Badie has caught eight balls out of the backfield for 141 yards and two TD’s. Tauskie Dove has another eight catches in the slot 99 yards and a score. They’ll be facing tough individual matchups against Florida, but the coverage has been susceptible all year and Missouri has the talent to make them pay. 

The Gators might be ranked 10th in the country, but this is a team that can compete with anyone and I’m excited to see them face Alabama in the eventual SEC championship. The Gators offense is purely lethal and their only downside has been their defense. They are aggressive and force turnovers, but can’t stop the run and haven’t made the stops when they matter most. If the Gators want to continue rolling in the SEC, this defense must bear down. They had four weeks to get it together and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a much better Gators D’ than the one that last took the field. 

The Gators game against LSU was postponed due to COVID, so their loss to Texas A&M is still looming large on their heads as the last time they took the field. It was a heartbreaking loss as UF had the ball to win it with two minutes left before fumbling and giving it all up. Still, it’s obvious that Florida has as much talent as anyone in the country on both sides of the ball. It just comes down to staying disciplined and keeping their assignments locked in. 

Offensively, it starts and ends with senior QB Kyle Trask. He has a ton of talent in his arm and the brains to back it up. He’s thrown for 996 yards, 14 touchdowns, and one interception through just three games. If the Gators beat A&M, Trask would be in the discussion for the Heisman. He can run it a little bit as well, rushing it for 28 yards and using his body well on third and fourth downs. 

Trask has two of the best pass-catchers in the entire country in Kyle Pitts (274 yds, 7 TD) and Kadarius Toney (237 yds, 4 TD). Pitts is a big-bodied tight end with some of the best hands in the country while Toney is a literal human joystick that can take it to the house anytime the ball is in his hands. Trevon Grimes and Malik Davis each have eight catches and give Trask elite secondary weapons if Pitts and Toney are both covered up. 

Florida runs the ball with Malik Davis and Dameon Pierce. Pierce has 25 carries for 130 yards and a touchdown while Davis has rushed it 16 times for 79 yards. Outside of the late fumble against A&M, these guys have done their job. Florida might not run the ball much, but they need four or five yards every time they do and these guys get the job done. Toney will also see a few carries as he’s the most dangerous player on the field at all times. 

The Gators are still bitter after getting by a Texas A&M team that shouldn’t have won that game. The Gators are far more talented on both sides of the ball and I have a strong feeling they come out on fire here. They not only have more to play for, but they’re also itching to play football after getting their last win nearly a month ago. Trask is going to throw for another 300+ yards and four scores. The Gators defense will show a bit of life and UF will roll -13. Get on this line before it reaches 14. 

Both of these offenses have come to life of late and I don’t have trust in either defense. Both defenses have talent as they play in the SEC, but the Tigers have struggled against the pass and the Gators have struggled against the run. It’s a recipe for points in this game and I expect a classic game of catch-up from the Tigers. The Gators will get ahead by a touchdown or two and it will turn into a “whatever you can do, I can do better”. The Gators will outlast Missouri, but both teams will put points on the board and I’m a big fan of the over.