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Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. LSU Tigers Betting Picks and Predictions

24 September 2020

NCAAF Picks Austyn Varney
Date:Saturday, September 26th
Time:3:30 PM ET
Venue:Tiger Stadium
Network:CBS
Spread:LSU -16.5
O/U:56

The Mississippi State Bulldogs and 6th-ranked LSU Tigers will face off at 3:30 PM ET in Tiger Stadium. You can catch the game on CBS. We’re into week four of the college football season, but it’s week one for SEC teams. There is a ton of change we’ll get to on both of these teams and it remains to be seen how either will transform with a new identity. Let’s dive right in!

When The Mississippi State Bulldogs Have The Ball

Get excited if you’re a Mississippi State Bulldogs fan. After a disappointing last few seasons, they’ve brought on Mike Leach and a brand new coaching staff. This team is going to throw the ball and then they’re going to throw it some more. When they’re done throwing, they’ll throw some more. If you didn’t watch Washington State the last few seasons, Leach runs an air-raid attack like no other.

QB K.J. Costello graduated from Stanford and has now transferred to Mississippi State to be Leach’s next QB star. He certainly has all the tools, as the Stanford Cardinal offensive system severely dampened his talent. Don’t be surprised to see him be the next Anthony Gordon, but with a bit more hype as he’ll be working against SEC defenses.

They just have to figure out who Costello is going to throw to. This system can turn mediocre receivers into stars, and Mississippi State is working with a lot better than mediocre talent. I’d expect leading-receiver from a season ago Osirus Mitchell (430 yds, 6 TD) to lead the charge, but it would be no shock to see Malik Heath or Austin Williams rise to the top. They are both extremely talented and fit this system perfectly.

The running back position is still a key one in this offense as their asked to catch the ball six to nine times a game and run another 7-10. Kylin Hill is the perfect versatile back for the offense and he’s going to have a monstrous season as defenses are forced to focus on the pass game. Leach has never had such a solid offensive line, so expect him to be as creative as ever.

This week is obviously a brutal test. The Tigers might have lost a few of their key pieces, but we all know the talent is going to step right back in and the championship culture of that team isn’t going to disappear overnight. Still, this Mississippi State Bulldogs team has a great shot of keeping it close if they can slow down the Tigers offense.

When The LSU Tigers Have The Ball

The LSU Tigers might be ranked 6th in the country, but I’m going to make a guarantee that they are not a top-10 team in College Football this season. They were arguably one of the best teams in we’ve seen in some time in 2019, but 19 of 22 starters are off of the team and there’s no way this fresh talent is anywhere on that level.

Joe Burrow is gone. Clyde-Edwards Helaire is gone. Justin Jefferson is gone. Three starting OL and eight defensive starters are gone. Offensive Coordinator Joe Brady went to coach the Panthers. The four and five-star replacements are there, but that doesn’t mean they will mesh like the others did. It also doesn’t mean they won’t, so we’re just in wait and see mode.

QB Chase Brennan has been talked about for what seems like a decade now and he will finally get his chance. Chris Curry is an animal at RB and he might be the one guy that is nearly as good as the guy he’s following. Terrace Marshall remains at WR and he’ll be joined by Kayshon Boutte and Racey McMath.. Boutte is a five-star freshman and has one of the highest ceilings in college football.

I think we see a team a lot closer to the 2018 LSU Tigers, who were a solid squad, but not in the conversation as the best in the SEC. It’s going to take a year or two to re-adjust after losing the entire team and part of the coaching staff. The Gators and Crimson Tide are the two best teams in the conference this season and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Mississippi State give the Tigers a close game.

Spread Prediction

Give me the Bulldogs all day here. We know LSU is going to have an elite defense like they always do, but I’m not sure how they will fare against this bizarre Mississippi State attack. Especially in week one when teams haven’t done much hitting in practice. Leach is used to giving better teams close games and now he gets to play with similar talent.

I’m high on Mississippi State and low on LSU this year, so this first game is a pretty easy one for me. LSU is going to come out slow and the Mississippi State defense is the best one Leach has ever coached, by far. LSU should squeeze out the win as they have more talent, but I really wouldn’t be surprised to see the Bulldogs win here. I’m obviously setting myself up to look foolish here, but I don’t see LSU anywhere near the team they were a season ago and Mississippi State is guaranteed to be better.

The Pick: Mississippi State +16.5

Best Sportsbooks For This Pick

New JerseyWilliam Hill square logoBet@William Hill
PennsylvaniaSugarHouse online casino square logoBet@SugarHouse
IndianaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
West VirginiaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
ColoradoBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
IllinoisBetRivers square logoBet@BetRivers

Total Prediction

If I’m expecting the Mississippi State offense to have success, you have to ride with the over here. The LSU Tigers might not be as dangerous as they were a season ago, but they’re going to score. The Bulldogs don’t have a bad defense in the scope of the nation, but they’re one of the weaker in the SEC and they won’t be shutting anyone down.

I like this game to turn into a back and forth affair. It doesn’t take long for Mississippi State to score when running their offense correctly and LSU will be throwing a lot this season. I expect this game to find the 60’s and the current numbers seems egregiously low.

The Pick: Over 56

Final Score Prediction: Mississippi State 38, LSU 35

Best Sportsbooks For This Pick

New JerseyWilliam Hill square logoBet@William Hill
PennsylvaniaSugarHouse online casino square logoBet@SugarHouse
IndianaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
West VirginiaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
ColoradoBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
IllinoisBetRivers square logoBet@BetRivers

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