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Michigan Wolverines (23) vs. Indiana Hoosiers (13) Betting Picks and Predictions

06 November 2020

NCAAF Picks Austyn Varney
Date:Saturday, November 7th
Time:12:00 PM ET
Network:FS1
Venue:Memorial Stadium
Spread:Michigan -3
O/U:54

The 1-1 Michigan Wolverines will go on the road Saturday to face off with the 2-0 Indiana Hoosiers at 12:00 PM ET in Memorial Stadium. You can watch the showdown on FS1 or ESPN3. The Wolverines are coming off a massive disappointment in their week two while the Hoosiers are still riding the momentum of their week one upset of Penn State. The Wolverines come in as three-point road favorites and we’re looking at a 54.5 over/under. Let’s dive into how this one will go down and who will end up covering the spread. Check out the rest of my NCAAF Picks and Predictions for this weekend’s slate of games. 

Trends

  • Michigan is 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games.
  • Indiana is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played in week 10.
  • Michigan is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games played in week 10.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana’s last 6 games against Michigan.

When The Michigan Wolverines Have The Ball

The Wolverines opened the season with an impressive victory over the Minnesota Golden Gophers. The offense and defense stepped up and they controlled the pace of the game from start to finish. That all came crumbling down in week two as 25-point favorites over Michigan State. The Spartans threw for 323 yards and three touchdowns and the Wolverines didn’t turn them over a single time. The defense will have to wake up if they want to get a victory on the road against an Indiana team that can be tough to handle. 

Offensively, they’ve been solid. Junior QB Joe Milton has thrown for 525 yards and a touchdown while keeping the ball out of the defense’s hands. He’s added another 111 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Milton hasn’t been the problem, but he could’ve been better late against the Spartans and they will need him to step up in these big games. Look for Michigan to throw a lot of short passes to get his confidence up.

Michigan still wants to run the ball as much as they can and it’s a three-headed backfield with Hassan Haskins leading the way. He’s carried it 14 times while Blake Corum is at 10 and Zach Charbonnet 9. Haskins and Charbonnet are both averaging over eight yards per carry and I expect those two to emerge as the front runners of this backfield. All three will get carries against Indiana, and it’s tough to prepare for three different rushers. 

When Milton drops back, Ronnie Bell and Roman Wilson are his primary targets. They’re the only two pass-catchers over 100 yards through two games and each have caught at least seven balls. Giles Jackson leads the team with nine catches for 75 yards and he looks like the guy Milton will target short. 12 total players have caught a pass through just two weeks, so there are a ton of options for Milton to use here and it comes down to him working through his progressions and finding the open man. 

When The Indiana Hoosiers Have The Ball

The Hoosiers have won their two opening games over Penn State and Rutgers. There was a lot of controversy surrounding their opening week win, but a victory is a victory and Indiana is up to 13th in the country. They’re putting up 36.5 points per game and their defense has done a great job of holding opposing offenses down when faced with a tough spot. 

If we’re being honest, this Indiana team has gotten a bit lucky through two games. They’ve turned the ball over four times and the offense hasn’t been all that electric. Michael Penix Jr. has completed just 58% of his passes for four touchdowns and one interception. He’s run it for another two scores and does a great job as the leader of this unit. He will need a massive performance against Michigan if Indiana wants to keep this close.

Stevie Scott III is the teams workhorse back and he’s run it 41 times for 138 yards and two scores. He’s the Hoosiers’ best chance to win this game. At wideout, Whop Philyor and Ty Fryfogle are very talented. They’ve combined for 200+ yards and two scores and Philyor is a guy that can kill any offense over the middle. Then there’s massive tight end Peyton Hendershot, who’s caught two touchdowns in two games on top of eight catches and 47 yards. If Penix can deliver these guys the ball, they’re dangerous. 

This game is realistically going to come down to how the Indiana defense deals with the Michigan offense. They came up big against Penn State on numerous occasions and will have to do the same here. Milton has shown to be a pretty level-headed quarterback, so they must get into his head and force a few mistakes. The Wolverines defense is also going to be angry and you can expect them to get after Penix. 

Spread Prediction

The Wolverines will come into this game on fire after losing their week two matchup. People will soon realize that Michigan State is actually pretty solid and the Wolverines didn’t have much tape on how Lombardi would be used in this offense with those weapons. Michigan has plenty of film on Indiana with Penix at the help and they will be ultra prepared for this contest. 

The Wolverines offense is a lot more trustworthy than it has been in past years. They have three effective running backs and a QB that can actually throw the ball with some integrity. I like the Wolverines to get an easy victory in this game and it’s one of my favorite bets of the entire weekend. I don’t even mind an adjusted line with the Wolverines giving up to nine points. 

The Pick: Michigan -3; Michigan Alt line up to -9

Best Sportsbooks For This Pick

New JerseyWilliam Hill square logoBet@William Hill
PennsylvaniaSugarHouse online casino square logoBet@SugarHouse
IndianaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
West VirginiaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
ColoradoBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
IllinoisBetRivers square logoBet@BetRivers

Total Prediction

I like the Wolverines defense to show up big time in this game. The Hoosiers offense has gotten away with turnovers early in the year, but it’s unsustainable and the Michigan defense is going to be hunting for turnovers. Offensively, Michigan will be in no hurry to score. They will run the ball a ton and keep the ball safe. The Indiana defense can struggle against the run and I expect Michigan to do a ton of this weekend. I love the under here, though I do like Michigan ATS far more. 

The Pick: Under 54

Final Score Prediction: Michigan 31, Indiana 17

Best Sportsbooks For This Pick

New JerseyWilliam Hill square logoBet@William Hill
PennsylvaniaSugarHouse online casino square logoBet@SugarHouse
IndianaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
West VirginiaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
ColoradoBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
IllinoisBetRivers square logoBet@BetRivers

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