Michigan State Spartans vs. Duke Blue Devils Betting Picks

November 29, 2020

Date:Tuesday, December 1st
Time:9:30 PM ET
Network:ESPN
Venue:Bankers Life Arena
Spread:Duke -4
O/U:151.5

The 2-0 Michigan State Spartans will go on the road Tuesday night to face off with the 1-0 Duke Blue Devils at 9:30 PM ET in Cameron Indoor Arena. The Blue Devils come in as four-point home favorites and we’re expecting plenty of points with a 151.5 over/under. Both of these teams have championship aspirations and this game will be telling no matter the outcome. Let’s dive into how this one will go down and who will end up covering the spread. Make sure to check out the rest of my NCAAF Picks and Predictions for this upcoming week of games.

Trends

  • Spartans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Tuesday games.
  • Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
  • Over is 5-0 in Spartans last 5 overall.
  • Over is 4-0 in Blue Devils last 4 games following a straight-up win.

When The Michigan State Spartans Have The Ball

The Spartans are 2-0 through their first pair of games, but they were played close last time out against Notre Dame and ended up winning 80-70. This Spartans team has put up 80+ points in both of their games and they’ve done it with a balanced attack. Nobody has put up more than 13 PPG, but four guys have been over 10 PPG. It starts with transfer junior forward Joey Hauser, who’s put up 12.5 points and 12.5 rebounds through two.

Sharpshooting Foster Loyer put up 20 points in the opener, but followed it up with just three points against Notre Dame. They need him to drain the outside shots and play pesky defense. Gabe Brown and Aaron Henry are bulldogs in the paint and both can rebound exceptionally well. The Spartans just have to play better defense

When The Duke Blue Devils Have The Ball

Duke opened their season with a 10-point victory over the Coppin State Eagles. It’s not very impressive, but this is a young team and I’m not all that worried about a few stinkers early in the season. Dj Steward led the team with 24 points off the bench and he’s one of the most promising freshman in the country.

Jalen Johnson is another top-10 freshman and he put up 19 points in the opener. Both of these guys have the potential to be CBB superstars. Wendell Moore Jr. is a mainstay in the paint and a crucial piece to an otherwise inexperienced starting lineup. Matthew hurt is a dynamic forward that’s going to explode for 20+ points in plenty of games. This team is as talented as any of Duke’s last 10 and I expect a big season.

Spread Prediction

The Pick: Duke -4

This Duke team is extremely talented and I surely like them a lot more than I do the Blue Devils team from a season ago. The combined talent from DJ Steward and Jalen Johnson is massive and going to give Michigan State issues on their own. You then have Wendell Moore and Matthew Hurt, who are two of the more concrete and consistent big men in college basketball. The Spartans are talented, but I see them as a clear tier below this Duke team. Give me Duke up to six points.

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Total Prediction

The Pick: Under 151.5
Final Score Prediction: Duke 76, Michigan State 70

The Blue Devils offense looked solid in the opener, but the defense was phenomenal. The Spartans have always played physical under Izzo and this team has all the tools to play the same way. I’m not extremely confident in this bet, but lean the under. This is a high number and a single four or five minute drought out of either team will make it hard to hit. It’s always scary to bet early-season unders in CBB, but this is one I like.

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