Miami Hurricanes vs. Virginia Tech Cavaliers Betting Picks

November 11, 2020

Date:Saturday, November 14th
Time:12:00 PM ET
Network:ESPN
Venue:Worsham Field
Spread:Virginia Tech -2.5
O/U:67

The 6-1 Miami Hurricanes will go on the road Saturday to face off with the 4-3 Virginia Tech Hokies at 12:00 PM ET in Worsham Field. The Hurricanes come in as 2.5-point road underdogs and we’re expecting a shootout with a 67 over/under. It’s surprising to see the Hurricanes as underdogs against a team with three losses when their only loss of the season came to Clemson. It speaks on the belief Vegas has in this Hokies squad and it’ll be interesting to see how this one goes down. Let’s dive into how this one will look and who will end up covering the spread. Make sure to check out the rest of my NCAAF Picks and Predictions for this packed weekend slate of games. 

Trends

  • Virginia Tech is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games played in November.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Miami-FL’s last 18 games on the road.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Virginia Tech’s last 17 games against Miami-FL.

When The Miami Hurricanes Have The Ball

The Hurricanes are coming off an emotional 44-41 win over the NC State Wolfpack in a game that was up in the air until the final whistle. The Canes have only lost one game this season and it was to the Clemson Tigers. On the other hand, they have a lousy strength of schedule. The Hokies are easily the second best team they’ve faced to this point and they’ll have to do it on the road a week after a tough win.

The Canes offense has leaned on QB D’Eriq King more and more every game. He’s up to 1,831 yards and 16 touchdowns through the air with another 406 yards and two scores on the ground. He’s averaging five yards per carry and completing 65% of his passes, giving Miami the efficiency they need on offense. He will have to take good care of the ball against a Hokies defense that is always hunting for turnovers. 

The pass-catchers in Miami are plentiful and King has no shortage of options when he drops back. Seven receivers have caught 11+ balls with each of them going for 100+ yards. Senior Mike Harley leads the bunch with 35 catches for 497 yards and four touchdowns. Mark Pope (25 catches, 333 yards, TD) and Dee Wiggins (19 catches, 231 yards, 2 TD) start on the outside and both are superb deep threats. Tight ends Brevin Jordan (243 yards, 3 TD) and Will Mallory (219 catches, 4 TD) are targeted a ton by King in the Red Zone and Jordan is elite at stretching the field over the middle. 

Starting halfback Cam’Ron Harris holds down the backfield and splits carries with King. They have near-identical numbers, rushing it for 407 yards on 80 carries. Harris has found the end zone five times while King has run it in twice. The Hokies are going to make it tough on Miami to run the ball and they will have to throw the ball with success early to gain some respect. 

When The Virginia Tech Hokies Have The Ball

Though the Hokies don’t have the prettiest record at 4-3, they’ve been a tough test for any team they’ve taken the field with. They’re coming off a 38-35 loss to 25th-ranked Liberty in a game that was close down to the wire. The undefeated Falcons got the win over Virginia Tech with a 51-yard field goal as time expired. That makes it two of three losses for a Hokies team that will be ready to grab a win.

This is one of the more efficient offenses in the entire country and only a few teams can say they run the ball as effectively. As a team, the Hokies have rushed for 1,942 yards and 21 touchdowns at 6.4 yards per carry. It starts with Khalil Herbert, who’s carried it 96 times for 803 yards and six scores. QB Hendon Hooker isn’t far behind with 515 rushing yards of his own on top of eight touchdowns. Raheem Blackshear is an excellent complimentary back that’s gone for 250+ and two TDs himself. The Hokies are best off running the ball, but that means they need a lead to ride. 

While Hooker and this offense have been more prolific on the ground, they’re far from bad through the air. In fact, three different receivers are over 300 yards with none of them over 350. WR Tre Turner leads the pack with 344 yards and TE James Mitchell leads with four touchdowns. That leaves Tayvion Robinson, who’s wicked good over the middle out of the slot.

This is a Hokies team that lives and dies with the run. The Hurricanes defense is solid, but they haven’t faced the toughest of competition and haven’t looked phenomenal already. Virginia Tech ranks fourth behind Alabama, Cincinnati, and Ohio State when it comes to running the ball. At home, look for the Hokies to slow things down early and pound the rock. It keeps the ball out of King’s hands and puts in the Hokies strong suit. 

Spread Prediction

The Pick: Virginia Tech -2.5

This line is fishy for a reason. The Hokies are the better overall team and they’re at home. The record is the only reason the entire public isn’t on Virginia Tech. They’re the better all-around team and they’re going to make it tough on Miami from the get go. The Hurricanes struggled last week with an NC State team that’s missing Devin Leary. They simply aren’t very good right now and the Hurricanes were pretty lucky to escape with a victory. I expect the Hokies to come into this game and simply take care of business.

The Hokies will run the ball 25+ times and you can expect both Hooker and Herbert to end up over 100 yards on the ground. If this Miami defense has one weak spot, it’s up the middle. They like to rush the QB and often leave huge holes in the line. I like the Hokies to give Miami their second loss of the season and I’m willing to eat the 2.5 points easily.

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Total Prediction

The Pick: Under 67
Final Score Prediction: Virginia Tech 34, Miami 31

The high number here makes sense as both of these offenses can put up points and neither defense is all that scary. On the other hand, I like the Hokies to control this game on the ground. Their goal will be to take the ball out of Miami’s hands and to control the time of possession. This number is just too high for a game that’s going to have so much action on the ground. Virginia Tech plays somewhat fast, but they will slow it down in this game at home. They aren’t in the business of a shootout and would rather win a scrappy game against the Hurricanes. I’m a big fan of the under here and will be pairing it with VT ATS. 

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