Marlon Vera vs Davey Grant Prediction

Fight is at 135 lbs and is -130 to end inside the distance. 

✅ This is the type of fight that gets made when one fighter notches a surprise win and the other fighter is coming off a loss against elevated competition. Davey Grant is the fighter coming off the surprise win, a KO of Jonathan Martinez. In fact, Grant is coming off consecutive KO wins. Additionally, Grant owns a win over Marlon Vera in the UFC back in 2016. Unfortunately for Grant, that’s where the list of positive statements ends. Since that fight in 2016, Grant has improved to some degree, while Vera has improved significantly more. When trying to pinpoint an area of advantage for Grant in the current matchup, I come up empty. 

✅ Marlon Vera has proven himself to be every bit a top 10 bantamweight. His striking has done well to catch up with his high end grappling game and he is now dangerous at many levels. The once slow starter has seemed to plug that hole in his game. I would deem Vera even or slightly better in the standup department. He is certainly the more durable fighter as well, and has never been finished in his career. Where I see the true area of advantage for Vera is on the mat. He is better in the clinch and a slightly better wrestler than Grant. I believe he will find himself in top position in this fight, and that’s where he will be most dangerous. Whether it be control, ground and pound or even a submission, there are multiple paths to victory for Vera. Conversely it is difficult to pinpoint the path to victory for Grant. 

✅ It is never fun laying over 2 to 1 in any MMA fight, but I feel this is a spot that absolutely warrants it. I believe Vera outclasses Grant, and somewhat significantly. Add in that Vera has never been finished, making a freak occurrence loss all the less likely, I am comfortable laying the -215 on Vera.