• Sat
    Jun 19
  • 12:30 am
    BKN
    MIL
    -120
    100
  • 12:00 am
    NYI
    TBL
    125
    -147
  • Fri
    Jun 18
  • 2:00 am
    LAC
    UTA
    100
    -120
  • 12:00 am
    MTL
    VGK
    140
    -167
  • Thu
    Jun 17
  • FINAL
    NYI
    TBL
    118
    -139
  • Wed
    Jun 16
  • FINAL
    PHI
    ATL
    -278
    230
  • Tue
    Jun 15
  • FINAL
    BKN
    MIL
    125
    -149
  • Mon
    Jun 14
  • FINAL
    VGK
    MTL
    -250
    200
  • FINAL
    ATL
    PHI
    120
    -145
  • Sun
    Jun 13
  • FINAL
    DEN
    PHX
    105
    -130
  • FINAL
    TBL
    NYI
    -189
    155
  • FINAL
    MIL
    BKN
    110
    -135
  • Fri
    Jun 11
  • FINAL
    DEN
    PHX
    -130
    105
  • FINAL
    ATL
    PHI
    100
    -120
  • Thu
    Jun 10
  • FINAL
    UTA
    LAC
    -149
    125
  • FINAL
    VGK
    COL
    -114
    -103
  • Wed
    Jun 9
  • FINAL
    PHX
    DEN
    -278
    210
  • FINAL
    NYI
    BOS
    118
    -139
  • Tue
    Jun 8
  • FINAL
    UTA
    LAC
    -175
    145
  • FINAL
    COL
    VGK
    -145
    120
  • FINAL
    PHI
    ATL
    -179
    148

Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs Maurice Greene Predictions

May 6, 2021

UFC
clock
9:00 PM ET May 8
UFC Vegas 26 - Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs Maurice Greene
Rogerio de Lima
-190
Bet
TJ
TJ

Marcos Rogerio de Lima -190 vs Maurice Greene

Betting Pick: Rogerio de Lima -190

Fight is at heavyweight and is -350 to end inside the distance. 

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✅ This fight is perhaps the easiest stylistic matchup to break down on the evening. Marcos Rogerio de Lima has been on the UFC roster for a decade, and in 12 fights we have a great read on his skill set. He is a crisp, compact and powerful striker. He certainly does his best work in the stand up department. This is especially true because he has never been able to fill in the glaring hole in his game: his takedown defense. In a brutal transition, he is quite helpless off of his back, so once he is down, he is often on the losing end of those fights. He needs to keep his fights standing, and often finds legitimate success when he is able to do so. It should be noted that while his defensive wrestling and grappling is anemic, his top game on the floor is sound enough. 

✅ Maurice Greene is a long and rangy striker. I would not deem him a subpar striker, but he is certainly far from world class and he does not bring a power element at heavyweight. He is just an adequate striker that will hold his own against lesser competition but will be outclassed by anyone at the higher end of the striking spectrum. Rogerio de Lima certainly falls into the latter category. 

I touched on where Rogerio de Lima loses fights, and this is simply not an area that Greene is able to exploit. Greene has quality grappling off his back, even earning two submission in the UFC from his back. However, he is yet to complete a takedown in the UFC, and he is simply not a sound offensive wrestler. His height combined with something of a lack of burst to shoot takedowns will continue to make that portion of his game a non starter. 

✅ With Greene being unlikely to force this fight to the floor and Rogerio de Lima happy to bang it out, the stylistic advantage certainly lies heavily with Rogerio de Lima. He has a clear advantage on the striking and power side, and will find a KO of Greene. Greene will not have an opponent looking to wrestler him and he will have no answer for being on the wrong end of a striking battle. 

With the Rogerio de Lima ITD line sitting at -120, there is simply not enough value to move to the ITD line from the -190 flat line. While I do expect a KO, the flat line is the play as it keeps a decision win in the range of winning outcomes. 

Betting Pick: Rogerio de Lima -190

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TJ
TJ Calkins
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today.