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LSU Tigers vs. Florida Gators Betting Picks

09 December 2020

Last updated: 06 January 2021 at 4:19 am

NCAAF Picks Austyn Varney
Date:Saturday, December 12th
Time:7:00 PM ET
Network:ESPN
Venue:Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Spread:Florida -23.5
O/U:68

The 3-5 LSU Tigers will go on the road Saturday night to face off with the 8-1 Florida Gators at 7:00 PM ET in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. The Gators come in as 23.5-point home favorites and we’re looking at a 68 over/under. You can tune in on ESPN. There is plenty of bad blood between these two teams and the Gators want to put up a big number here. Let’s dive into how this one will go down and who will end up covering the spread. Make sure to check out the rest of my CFB Picks and Predictions for the upcoming weekend slate of games.

Trends

  • Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.
  • Gators are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
  • Over is 5-2 in Tigers last 7 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
  • Over is 5-1 in Gators last 6 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

When The LSU Tigers Have The Ball

It’s been an ugly year for LSU and they go from losing 55-17 to Alabama to facing their next biggest rival in the Florida Gators. There is legitimate bad blood between these two squads and both teams will get up for this game. The problem for LSU is they simply don’t have the ability to stay with a team like Florida. The defense is porous and that’s being generous.

Freshman QB TJ Finley has started four games to this point and he’s been decent. He’s up to 941 yards with five touchdowns and five interceptions while adding 34 yards and a score on the ground. He at least gives this offense hope for next season. Tyron Davis-Price and John Emery Jr. are two elite backs, but they often get lost in the mix when LSU falls behind. Against Florida, their only hope is to get the backs involved.

When The Florida Gators Have The Ball

The Gators have gotten more and more pass-heavy as we’ve moved along and QB Kyle Trask is now the odds-on favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. He’s been the best quarterback in College Football, throwing it for 3,243 yards, 38 touchdowns, and three interceptions. His ball is crisp and his accuracy 20+ yards down the field is something to see. HC Dan Mullen deserves praise for putting this offense together, but it’s been Trask that has put the team on his back.

TE Kyle Pitts and WR Kadarius Toney are two of the best weapons in the entire country. Toney has the ability to score on any single touch while Pitts is too fast for any LB and too big for any S/CB. Trevon Grimes is a senior and possibly the best WR3 in CFB. This is a lethal offense and while they don’t run it much, Malik Davis and Dameon Pierce are SEC-level backs that you can’t ignore.

Spread Prediction

These two teams hate each other and the Gators are going to take the liberty of running to score up here. They know that won’t always be the case in this matchup and the Gators are going to pounce on the Tigers down year. The Tigers offense is far from lethal and Finley seems to turn the ball over at the worst possible times. Kyle Trask is on the path to a Heisman Trophy and the Tigers defense just gave up 55 to Alabama. I like the Gators here -23.5 and it’s one of my favorite bets of the week.

The Pick: Florida -23.5

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Total Prediction

If you like the Gators to cover, you have to like the over. They have an offense that can put up close to 60 points on their own and the defense isn’t shutdown by any means. Jump on this over before it gets over 70 as this surely seems too low.

The Pick: Over 68

Final Score Prediction: Florida 51, LSU 24

Best Sportsbooks For This Pick

StateSportsbookBonusLink & Promo Code
New JerseyWilliam Hill square logo$500 Risk-Free BetBet Now
SPORTSBONUSRF
PennsylvaniaSugarHouse online casino square logo$250 Deposit BonusBet Now
250MATCH
IndianaBetMGM white and gold logo on black background$600 Risk-Free BetBet Now
USSB500
West VirginiaBetMGM white and gold logo on black background$600 Risk-Free BetBet Now
USSB500
ColoradoBetMGM white and gold logo on black background$600 Risk-Free BetBet Now
USSB500
IllinoisPointsBet square logo$250 Deposit BonusBet Now
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TennesseeBetMGM white and gold logo on black background$600 Risk-Free BetBet Now
USSB500
MichiganBetMGM white and gold logo on black background$600 Risk-Free BetBet Now
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