Khaos Williams vs Matthew Semelsberger Prediction

June 17, 2021

Khaos Williams -165 vs Matthew Semelsberger

Fight is at 170 lbs and is -185 to end inside the distance. 

Betting Pick: Williams ITD +115

 ✅ I believe this to be a fight in which the underdog is getting too much respect on the betting line. I would have to imagine recent outcomes for both fighters are the culprit for the short line. 

 ✅ On the Matthew Semelsberger side, he has two wins in two tries in the UFC. That said, those wins have come against the most unimpressive competition that will surface in the UFC. While Semelsberger does bring a rounded game, he is leveling up and facing a truly dangerous fighter for the first time in the promotion. Semelsberger may throw more volume in the standup, but he will be at a massive power disadvantage in the standup portion of this fight. Once his chin starts getting tested in the early portion of the fight, the deciding factor for him may be his ability to secure takedowns. He is a capable but not elite wrestler, and that portion of skill set is likely the one that could make a difference. 

 ✅ Khaos Williams on the other hand, is a striker with massive one shot power. His first two UFC fights were first minute Kos of fighters levels above Semelsberger. That KO streak was snapped in his last fight against a durable Michel Pereira. With the large step down in competition, I envision another quick KO for Williams. Semelsberger has been KO’d before, and against a debuting fighter in a smaller promotion no less. The power of Williams will own the day. The short line on Williams means a very friendly ITD line of +115. That will be our avenue of attack. 

Betting Pick: Williams ITD +115
TJ Calkins
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today.