Khachanov vs Carreno-Busta – ATP Monte Carlo Predictions

Khachanov vs Carreno-Busta is one of the few Wednesday matches at ATP Monte Carlo that doesn’t feature a heavy favorite. With two opponents that are somewhat evenly matched, this shapes up to be one of the more intriguing contests of the day’s action. In today’s tennis picks, we look at the Khachanov vs Carreno-Busta showdown and offer our best bet for a potentially dramatic contest.

Karen Khachanov won his first clay court match since the 2020 French Open in the first round of the Monte Carlo Masters. The Russian beat Laslo Djere in the first round of the tournament, setting up this second round clash with a top-15 player in the world in Carreno-Busta. While Khachanov has proven competent on clay, the question is whether he can handle an in-form Carreno-Busta here.

If Khachanov is going to knock off the Spaniard, it is going to have to come via the return of serve. Against Djere, the Russian won just under half of the Serbian’s first serve points and close to 60% of his second serve points. All of those points should be harder to come by against Carreno-Busta, who is better at protecting his serve than Djere in a big way.

Pablo Carreno-Busta picked up his fifth straight win on clay in the last week in the first round at Monte Carlo. He took care of Italian Stefano Travaglia in straight sets in the first round in Monaco. That effort followed up his performance last week in Marbella, where he won the title on home soil in that 250 level event.

For Carreno-Busta, his form and ability on clay are not at all in question. The question for the Spaniard will be whether or not he can keep up the level he has summoned over the last week on clay. Fatigue shouldn’t be too pressing a concern given that he took some time off after Dubai. But players coming off of a title the previous week are always susceptible to a letdown in the next event.

The head-to-head history in Khachanov vs Carreno-Busta is interesting, with the Spaniard winning three of the five meetings between the two. Carreno-Busta won the first three encounters against Khachanov, though the Russian has responded with two straight wins of his own. Each of their last three encounters has seen a set go to a tiebreak. But Carreno-Busta has the edge on clay, having won their only meeting on the surface during the 2017 Monte Carlo Masters.

On clay, the consistency of Carreno-Busta is what gives him the edge in this Khachanov vs Carreno-Busta matchup. He plays with more margin, which will result in more errors from the Russian. Expect PCB to do a better job of waiting for the right opportunities to strike, and for Khachanov to frustrate himself out of this match as he hits more errors than the in-form Carreno-Busta.