Justin Tafa vs Jared Vanderaa Predictions

May 20, 2021

Justin Tafa -185 vs Jared Vanderaa

Betting Pick: Tafa ITD -110
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UFC Vegas 27 Predictions

Fight is at heavyweight and is -325 to end inside the distance. 

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✅ Jared Vanderaa enters his second fight in the promotion, and he will be looking for a far better showing than that of his debut. He did not throw with volume nor power on the feet. He was taken down, controlled and ultimately finished in that fight. While he likely will not have to worry about being taken down in this matchup, he will have a whole different set of problems. In what is likely to be a striking heavy fight, Vanderaa will have to make massive improvements if he is to be competitive. He will be at a power disadvantage, a volume disadvantage and truthfully, an overall effectiveness disadvantage. I believe he will have real problems with any true UFC caliber heavyweight, and this fight qualifies there. As the striking gets away from Vanderaa, he will likely become a desperation wrestler, and getting this fight to the floor is his only real path to victory. Even then, he’s not exactly a killer on the floor, and whether he can even complete a takedown is a huge question. 

✅ Justin Tafa has had mixed results in his UFC tenure, but he seemed to put it together the best he has in his last fight. He looked quite good in a loss to Carlos Felipe. That was a split decision loss and a fight I scored for Tafa. That fight was against an opponent that I view as much better than his current one. The striking in this fight will belong to Tafa, and I believe it will be become progressively lopsided until Tafa secures a KO. I believe the only true danger he faces is being taken down, and I think he is prepared to defend that game plan from Vanderaa, if it comes. 

✅ I think this line is not wide enough and does not truly cover the gap in ability between these two fighters. I think Tafa runs away with this one and is able to finish Vanderaa. While the -110 ITD line on Tafa is not exactly the most value laden we will see, the outcome is by far the most likely and it will be our avenue of attack. 

Betting Pick: Tafa ITD -110

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TJ
TJ Calkins
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today.