Jim Crute vs Anthony Smith Predictions

April 22, 2021

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8:00 PM ET Apr 24
UFC 261 - Jim Crute vs Anthony Smith
Crute
-200
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Jim Crute -200 vs Anthony Smith

Betting Play: Crute -200

Fight is at 205 lbs and is -185 to end inside the distance.

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Jim Crute vs Anthony Smith would be aptly titled two ships passing in the night. Smith is a declined fighter that is just trying to hold onto divisional gatekeeper status at this point. Crute on the other hand is an ascending prospect that really is more accurately labeled contender in this UFC 261 fight.

Smith has lost three of five fights and has only been able to secure wins against the fighters who he was a better grappler than. That will not be the case in this fight, and I am excited to see the next progression for Crute.

In the standup, Smith has become a fighter lacking dangerous power, and one that can be hurt. He has had his leg shredded and Crute is quite accurate with placing leg kicks. Moreover, we saw on full display the power Crute brings in his fight with Modestas Bukauskas. Crute absolutely starched him in the first round of his last fight. Bukauskas is a sound striker and is durable, so this was absolutely an occurrence to take note of.

When the striking inevitably goes the wrong way for Smith, he will once again try to make it a grappling fight. However this time he is not the better wrestler and is certainly not the better grappler. Crute will have advantages wherever this fight goes and is the one that can find a finish.

Simply put, laying -200 is too short on Crute and we will jump on the flat line. The ITD line is attractive but Smith can survive a lot off his back but is not really going to threaten actually winning the fight from there.

Betting Pick: Crute -200

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TJ Calkins
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today.