Iowa State Cyclones vs. Oklahoma State Betting Picks

The 3-1 Iowa State Cyclones will go on the road Saturday afternoon to face off with the 3-0 Oklahoma State Cowboys at 1:00 PM ET in Boone Pickens Stadium. The Cowboys come into the contest as 2.5-point home favorites and we’re looking at a middle of the road 54.5 over/under. The season has been a bit shaky for both of these squads and it’ll be interesting to see how they fare in this hyper-competitive game. Let’s dive into who will win this one and cover the spread in the process.

The Cyclones played one of the first games of this wonky College Football season and ended up losing 31-14 to the very talented Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns. They’ve since bounced back with wins over TCU, Oklahoma (18), and Texas Tech. The offense has looked better and better every game and Brock Purdy finally looks comfortable in the offense once again. They’ll be tested against an extremely tough Oklahoma State defense and it’s going to be interesting to see how this one goes.

Junior signal-caller Brock Purdy started off the season bad, throwing one touchdown through the first two games with as many interceptions and under 350 combined yards. This is a guy coming off a 3,900-yard season and it was only a matter of time until he straightened things out. He’s thrown for 250+ yards in each of the last two games and didn’t turn the ball over in either. Purdy is underrated on the ground and he’s rushed for 81 yards and a score through four games. 

The best player on offense is RB Breece Hall. He’s going to be a dynamic NFL talent and is a guy that Iowa State gets the ball to in a plethora of ways. On the ground, he’s rushed for 531 yards and eight touchdowns, averaging nearly six yards per carry in the process. He’s added another six catches for 42 yards, but should be a lot more involved in the passing game as he’s excellent in space and in the screen game. 

With Tarique Milton on and off of the injury report, Xavier Hutchinson (20 rec, 229 yards, TD) and Charlie Kolar (12 rec, 134 yards, TD) have stepped up as the top receiving threats in this offense. Kolar is a monstrous human being and Purdy would be smart to pepper him with targets in the Red Zone. If Tarique Milton plays, he’s the most talented receiver on ISU and Purdy loves throwing it to the slot. It all comes down to him having enough time in the pocket against a tough defense to find open receivers.

The Oklahoma State Cowboys are ranked sixth in the country, though it doesn’t seem like they’re getting very much attention. They opened up the season with a poor performance and it left a bad taste in a lot of folks’ mouths. They did show some resilience in that game, however, and Tulsa has proved legitimate with a win over UCF. They followed the opening-week scare with two demanding victories over West Virginia and Kansas, and the offense started to pick it up last time out. 

Spencer Sanders hasn’t played since week one, but Gundy has stated that he will be 100% by game time on Saturday and both he and Shane Illingsworth might be used. He hasn’t looked amazing, but did throw three touchdowns against a miserable Kansas secondary last game. Sanders adds another dimension to this offense as he can not only throw it 70 yards downfield but he can also run it that far if given a crease. 

Expect Oklahoma State to run the ball a ton with Chuba Hubbard in this game. That’s always the plan, but even more so this week against an Iowa State team that can struggle against the run. Hubbard is the best back in College Football and he’s rushed for 339 yards and four scores, failing to meet preseason expectations. At least to this point. 

The talent doesn’t stop there as future NFL 1st rounder Tylan Wallace is the biggest game-changer of all at wide receiver. There isn’t a corner in the country that can handle him 1-on-1 and defenses must prepare solely for him. The six-foot athletic monster has already reeled in 19 balls for 325 yards and two touchdowns. Expect another big day out of him against Iowa State. No other receiver has caught more than 10 passes or been 100+ yards, but a ton of guys mix in and out behind Wallace. 

The Cowboys defense has stepped up in a big way through three games and they’ll need them again as Iowa State can put points on the board. If Oklahoma State can force a few turnovers, they have the offense to convert in the red zone. It just comes down to whether or not they can slow down a Brock Purdy led offense that’s starting to heat up. 

The Oklahoma State Cowboys are the more talented team, but I don’t like the prospect of Sanders returning and both QB’s getting time under center. They’re going to protect the legs of Sanders and he’ll be instructed not to run. That already takes away a huge part of his game and you add that with him being a rhythm thrower and I see disaster here. The Cowboys defense has overperformed to date and the Iowa State Cyclones are going to have offensive success. It just comes down to whether they’re able to slow down Oklahoma State and I think they can. Give me the 2.5 points with Iowa State, though I think they can win this game outright. 

This total is assuming the Cowboys defense is as good as they’ve looked through three weeks. I don’t believe it as advanced numbers tell us they’ve gotten a bit lucky. Iowa State has a lethal offense and they’re going to test the secondary. Give me both teams to find their way into the upper 20’s in this game and for it to come down to the last few minutes. The over isn’t my favorite bet in this game, but I’m comfortable laying a unit on it. 

• Iowa State is 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games played in October.
• Iowa State 4-is1 ATS in their last 5 games played in week 8.
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma State’s last 5 games against Iowa State.
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma State’s last 5 games played in October.