Indiana Hoosiers (9) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (2) Betting Picks and Predictions

November 19, 2020

Date:Saturday, November 21st
Time:12:00 PM ET
Network:FOX
Venue:Ohio Stadium
Spread:Ohio State -20.5
O/U:67

The 4-0 Indiana Hoosiers will go on the road Saturday to face off with the 3-0 Ohio State Buckeyes at 12:00 PM ET in Ohio Stadium. You can watch the top-10 showdown on FOX. While both of these teams are ranked inside the top ten, sportsbooks aren’t expecting this one to be close. The Buckeyes come in as 20.5-point favorites and we’re expecting plenty of points with a 67 over/under. This game will decide a ton in the CFB Playoff picture, and I can’t wait for noon on Saturday to make it’s way here. Let’s dive into how this one will go down and who will end up covering the spread. Make sure to check out the rest of my NCAAF Picks and Predictions for this packed weekend slate of games.

Trends

  • Hoosiers are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight-up win of more than 20 points.
  • Buckeyes are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight-up win of more than 20 points.
  • Over is 13-3 in Hoosiers last 16 games as an underdog.
  • Over is 6-1 in Buckeyes last 7 games in November.

When The Indiana Hoosiers Have The Ball

The Hoosiers have worked themselves into the top-10 after four straight quality wins. After a one-point victory over Penn State to start the season, Indiana has reeled off three straight convincing victories over Rutgers, Michigan, and Michigan State. They most recently beat the Michigan State Spartans 24-0 in what was their most impressive showing to date. Both sides of the football showed up and a similar showing is exactly what they need against an Ohio State team that will capitalize on any mistake made.

Sophomore QB Michael Penix Jr. has made a giant leap in year two and he’s done a great job leading this offense. He’s completed 60% of his passes for 1,070 yards, nine scores, and three interceptions. He doesn’t run it much, but has scored twice with his big body. The key for Penix Jr. in this game will be to take care of the football. Ohio State will be in the backfield fast and the corners aren’t going to give a ton of room.

He must get the ball to Ty Fryfogle and Whop Philyor as much as possible. They’re a pair of talented receivers that would start anywhere in the country. They’ll draw the majority of attention from Ohio State, which will put Miles Marshall and Peyton Hendershot into focus. Both are extremely talented and will have every opportunity to step up and have a huge game. They’re both 6’4 and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Penix look their way in the RZ. He just has to make sure it stays in the Hoosiers’ hands as a couple of turnovers are unaffordable against the Buckeyes.

The biggest constant on this team is their ability to run the ball with Stevie Scott III. It’s his third year starting for the Hoosiers and he gives them a ton of consistency from the RB position. He’s rushed it for 319 yards and five touchdowns and must have a big game against Ohio State. He’s also caught eight balls out of the backfield, so can’t be slept on out of the backfield in the passing game.

When The Ohio State Buckeyes Have The Ball

The Buckeyes might be the most cut and dry team of the three many believe are in true contention for the championship. Alabama and Clemson have had to play a lot more games and naturally, problems have risen. For Ohio State, they’re still extremely healthy on both sides of the ball and they couldn’t look any better through three games. They’re averaging 47 points per game and allowing just over 20.

Justin Fields is now the odds-on favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. He’s completed 86.7% of his passes for 908 yards and 11 scores. He’s added another 57 yards and two scores on the ground and he hasn’t turned it over a single time. If Fields can continue this level of performance, there isn’t a team in college football that can beat Ohio State. They have a better defense than Alabama or Clemson and an offense to match either.

The weapons are plentiful as Ohio State is filled with five-star recruits, per the usual. Master Teague (211 yards, 4 TD) and Trey Sermon (172 yards) man the backfield and they average nearly five yards per carry as a pair. At wide receiver, Garrett Wilson (24 rec, 344 yards, 2 TD) and Chris Olave (18 rec, 288 yards, 4 TD) are the primary options, and either can break this game wide open if Indiana doesn’t be careful. No other pass-catcher has double-digit carries, but three of Jeremy Ruckert’s nine catches have gone for a score and he’s always a threat close to the goal line.

Spread Prediction

The Pick: Ohio State -20.5

Indiana might make this one interesting for a good part of the first half, but they won’t be able to keep up with Ohio State. The offense isn’t efficient enough and I’m willing to guarantee the Buckeyes turn Indiana over at least twice. The Buckeyes offense is extremely lethal and they won’t have any problem driving the ball down the field over and over. I’ll take Ohio State, though I am willing to admit this is a dangerous line and not my favorite bet in this game. Let’s move to the total.

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Total Prediction

The Pick: Over 67
Final Score Prediction: Ohio State 52, Indiana 24

The over is the only bet to make here and it’s my favorite bet in this game by a longshot. Both of these offenses can put up numbers in bunches and I wouldn’t be surprised if Ohio State hits 50 on their own. The Buckeyes defense is aggressive and I like them to turn Indiana over, but I also expect them to give up quite a few points. Indiana can move the ball in a variety of ways and they’ll find the end zone three or four times. The over is easily my favorite bet in this game and I’m willing to bet it all the way up to 70.

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