Florida Gators vs. Tennessee Volunteers Betting Picks

December 4, 2020

Date:Saturday, December 5th
Time:3:30 PM ET
Network:CBS
Venue:Neyland Stadium
Spread:Florida -17.5
O/U:61.5

The 7-1 Florida Gators will go on the road Saturday afternoon to face off with the 2-5 Tennessee Volunteers at 3:30 PM ET in Neyland Stadium. The Gators come in as 17.5-point road favorites and we’re expecting plenty of points with a 61.5 over/under. You can tune into the SEC showdown on CBS. Let’s dive into how this one will go down and who will end up covering the spread. Make sure to check out the rest of my CFB Picks and Predictions for this upcoming weekend slate of games.

Trends

  • Gators are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
  • Volunteers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a home underdog.
  • Over is 5-0 in Gators last 5 games in December.
  • Over is 8-3 in Volunteers last 11 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

When The Florida Gators Have The Ball

This is possibly the most lethal passing attack in all of College Football. Led by QB Kyle Trask (2,810 yards, 34 TD, 3 INT), the Gators are still very much in the hunt for a spot in the College Football Playoff. They throw it nearly 75% of the time and lethal weapons Kadarius Toney and Kyle Pitts are two of the best pass-catchers in all of the country. When the Gators do run the ball, Dameon Pierce and Malik Davis are a solid tandem that does a good job of taking care of the football and moving the chains.

The Gators one weakness has been the defense this season, though they haven’t been entirely bad. It’s more of an up and down thing and an inability to find any consistency. The Volunteers offense can run the ball, so the Gators must play stout up front or this game could remain competitive.

When The Tennessee Volunteers Have The Ball

The Volunteers track record looks putrid, but three of their five losses came to Alabama, Georgia, and Auburn. All five losses were to SEC opponents and the Volunteers can’t be discounted for their 2-5 record. The offense is led by senior QB Jarrett Guarantano, who has been average at best this season. This is a run-first offense and Eric Gray (132 carries, 651 yards, 4 TD, 22 catches, 199 yards, TD) has emerged as the number one. He’s followed by Ty Chandler (72 carries, 315 yards, 2 TD) and Guarantano has also rushed it in four times. The Volunteers will have success running the ball in this game, but they’ll have to avoid the Gators putting up 40+ as this team just can’t keep up and we’ve seen it all year.

Spread Prediction

The Pick: Florida -17.5

The Gators are going to have no trouble scoring on this Volunteers defense and they simply don’t have the offensive firepower to keep up. The Crimson Tide beat this team by 31 and I expect a similar number here. The Gators are getting ready to play LSU before facing off with Alabama in the SEC championship, so there will be nothing held back by the coaching staff. They don’t want this one to be at all close.

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Total Prediction

The Pick: Over 61.5
Final Score Prediction: Gators 48, Volunteers 17

The Gators offense is lethal and I expect around 40 points from them in this game, at least. The Volunteers offense might be the antonym of lethal, but the Gators defense will invite at least two or three scores. Neither offense wants to slow things down and there won’t be a quarter where things go cold. I would much rather bet on the Gators to beat the Vols comfortably, but do lean the over here.

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