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Florida Gators (4) vs. Texas AM Aggies (21) Betting Picks and Predictions

09 October 2020

NCAAF Picks Austyn Varney
Date:Saturday, October 10th
Time:12:00 PM ET
Venue:Kyle Field
Network:ESPN
Spread:Florida -6.5
O/U:57.5

The 2-0 fourth-ranked Florida Gators will go on the road Saturday to face off with the 21st-ranked Texas AM Aggies at 12:00 PM ET in Kyle Field. You can watch the SEC showdown on ESPN. The Aggies only loss came to Alabama, so it’s tough to blame them. The Gators are favored by just 6.5 points on the road and this is a pivotal game if they want to keep their championship aspirations alive. Let’s dive into who will win this game and cover the spread.

When the Florida Gators Have The Ball

The Gators have beat Ole Miss and South Carolina to start the season and while the games were never very close, the Gators have still struggled defensively and it’s a valid concern moving forward. They expected the defense to be one of the best in the country, so allowing as many points as they have through two weeks is unsettling. Still, the offense has been elite and maybe even better than expected.

QB Kyle Trask has completed over 70% of his passes with 64 yards, 10 TD’s, and one interception. He’s been one of the best QB’s in all of college football. His main target has been TE Kyle Pitts, who’s the best tight end prospect out of UF since Aaron Hernandez. He’s not only a massive target, but is agile and does a good job of finding open space in the defense.

Kadarius Toney is technically a WR and he’s already caught 11 balls, but he’s more of a utility knife. He’s run the ball four more times for 51 yards and HC Dan Mullen will find a way to get him 7-10 touches in this pivotal matchup. Toney is a human joystick and he’s a problem for any secondary. Trevon Grimes starts on the outside and is the veteran presence of the group. He’ll make a defense pay if they overcommit to Toney and Pitts as a sure-handed Red Zone threat.

The Gators use their running game to complement the passing game and it’s a two-headed attack between Dameon Pierce and Malik Davis. Pierce is a bit more of a boomer while Davis wants to run away from you. You can also expect Kadarius Toney to pick up one or two carries and is a huge threat to take it to the house anytime the ball is in his hands.

When The Texas AM Aggies Have The Ball

The Aggies offense go as four-year starter QB Kellen Mond goes. He is this system and the offense has been built around him. He’s thrown for 507 yards through two games and impressed against ‘Bama. If he’s able to keep the ball safe, this Florida defense has been susceptible through the air. 

The Aggies have produced some marquee talent at WR over the past 10 years and we’re still not sure who that guy is on this team. RB Ainias Smith is a Swiss-army knife and he leads the team in receiving with 150 yards and two scores. TE Jalen Wydermyer has caught 10 balls for 101 yards, but he’s yet to find the end zone. 

Chase Lane and Jalen Preston are two youngsters on the outside that have a ton of potential, but Mond is still working out the chemistry with both. Florida will force Mond away from his primary targets, so he better be ready to spread things around if they want to win.

The backfield is a dangerous one with Isaiah Spiller and Ainias Smith sharing carries. Spiller is a monstrous back with elite speed that never fails to fall forward. Ainias Smith is more of a change-of-pace speedster and a threat in the passing game. The Gators will have to be prepared for both as they are game-changers that Mond has relied on early. 

The Aggies defense will have its hands full, but they showed at times against Alabama that they can make stops. However, 435 yards through the air to an Alabama team that has Mac Jones at QB is a bit worrisome. This Trask-led Gators attack is a bit more lethal and the weapons are just silly. It’ll be another long game for A&M if they tighten up the pass defense. 

Spread Prediction

The Gators are the better overall team here and I expect their defense to show up in a big way for the first time this season. The offense is lethal and nobody is second guessing their ability to put points on the board. It just comes down to slowing down Texas A&M, who has already seen elite defense through two weeks. The Gators defense is packed full of NFL talent and they will be one of the best in the country once the chemistry hits. 

Kyle Trask has been one of the best QB’s in the country and he has some elite weapons at his disposal. Kyle Pitts is arguably the best tight end in the country and he’s already reeled in 12 balls for 227 yards and six touchdowns. Yes, that’s in two games. Then there’s Kadarius Toney, who’s a human joystick and a problem for any defense in space. The Gators are going to end up in the CFB playoff and they’ll take care of Texas A&M on the road. Jump on this game before the line gets to seven, in which case I would recommend buying half of a point.

The Pick: Gators -6.5

Best Sportsbooks For This Pick

New JerseyWilliam Hill square logoBet@William Hill
PennsylvaniaSugarHouse online casino square logoBet@SugarHouse
IndianaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
West VirginiaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
ColoradoBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
IllinoisBetRivers square logoBet@BetRivers

Total Prediction

I expect the Gators defense to step up in a big way in this game and hold the Aggies under 20 points. It’s tough to ask after giving up big points in back to back weeks, but this is a different ballgame and the defense will come prepared. I do expect Florida to do plenty of damage offensively, but that doesn’t mean the same thing against an SEC team. They will still hold their own and force the Gators to punt plenty. Give me the under here as the Gators defense is undervalued and A&M offense overvalued. 

The Pick: Under 57.5

Final Score Prediction: Gators 38, Aggies 17

Best Sportsbooks For This Pick

New JerseyWilliam Hill square logoBet@William Hill
PennsylvaniaSugarHouse online casino square logoBet@SugarHouse
IndianaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
West VirginiaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
ColoradoBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
IllinoisBetRivers square logoBet@BetRivers
Why is the Florida Gators -6.5 the bet to make?

– Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.
– Aggies are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up loss of more than 20 points.

Why is Under 57.5 the bet to make?

– Under is 4-0 in Aggies last 4 games following a straight up loss.
– Under is 7-1 in Aggies last 8 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.

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