Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs. Troy Trojans Betting Picks

November 11, 2020

Date:Saturday, November 14th
Time:12:00 PM ET
Network:ESPN2
Venue:Veterans Memorial Stadium
Spread:Coastal Carolina -11
O/U:52.5

The 7-0 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers will go on the road Saturday to face off with the 4-3 Troy Trojans at 12:00 PM ET in Veterans Memorial Stadium. You can tune into the matchup on ESPN2 as the undefeated Chanticleers try to hold onto their spotless record against an underrated squad. This game opened with CCU -8 and has been worked all the way up to 11, so the public is heavily on one side here. Let’s dive into how this game will go down and who will end up covering the spread. Make sure to check out the other NCAAF Picks and Predictions for this weekend slate of College Football games.

Trends

  • Troy is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games played in week 11.
  • Troy is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
  • Over is 8-3 in Chanticleers last 11 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Over is 11-5-1 in Trojans last 17 home games.

When The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers Have The Ball

The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers have been one of the most impressive teams in the nation to this point, coasting through all but one of their seven victories. They’re not only lethal offensively, but are stout defensively and have playmakers that create turnovers. They’re up to 15th in the country and will look to keep climbing with a comfortable win over the Troy Trojans. 

Freshman QB Grayson McCall has been just as impressive as his team and he isn’t talked about nearly enough. Completing nearly 70% of his passes en route to 1,393 yards, 16 touchdowns, and just one interception is phenomenal. He can run it too with 272 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. The Chanticleers couldn’t ask for more out their freshman signal-caller. 

Everything in this offense goes through the running game and it starts with senior HB C.J. Marable. He’s carried it 98 times for 370 yards and five touchdowns on top of 20 catches for 154 yards and another five scores. Romeo White and Shermari Jones are excellent change of pace backs and White has averaged 6.4 yards per carry. 

The Chanticleers have a bunch of weapons for McCall to throw the ball to, but it all starts with Jaivon Heiligh. The 6’2 junior wideout has reeled in 35 balls for 610 yards and six touchdowns. He demands a double team and Troy will have problems with him all game long. Tight end Isaiah Likely has racked up 232 yards and three scores while Sam Denmark follows closely with 231 yards and one touchdown. Kameron Brown has caught another three scores and Marable has five out of the backfield. This team can attack from any angle and they have plenty of weapons ready to be deployed. 

When The Troy Trojans Have The Ball

The Trojans have been one of the few teams in college football that has played on par with their expectations. They’ve had a couple of close disappointing losses, but also beat a few teams they shouldn’t have. They’re coming off a 20-13 loss to Georgia Southern in a game they were leading at halftime. They’ll look to get back on track against a Coastal Carolina egg that hasn’t been cracked to this point. 

The Trojans starting QB Gunnar Watson is questionable to play and the offense is a lot more lethal with him under center. He’s thrown for almost 1200 yards and 10 touchdowns while completing 70% of his passes. Jacob Free is the backup and nowhere near the talent. Watson will still struggle in a big way, but he gives them a much better chance to stay in the game. 

The Trojans don’t have a shortage of talent at wide receiver. Senior Kaylon Geiger leads the bunch with 41 catches for 523 yards and a touchdown. Once the Trojans get into the red zone, Watson looks towards the taller Reggie Todd (4 TD) and Khalil McClain (5 TD). Eight receivers in this offense have either 20+ catches or 100+ yards, so Watson is good at spreading things around. 

When Troy does run, Kimani Vidal and B.J. Smith split carries. Vidal has been the far more productive back, however, averaging nearly six yards per carry en route to 393 yards and three scores. Smith must do a better job if he wants to continue getting a large share of the offense. D.K. Billingsley was phenomenal a season ago and is waiting in the wings when needed. 

Spread Prediction

The Pick: Troy +11

The Chanticleers will escape with their eighth victory of the season when all is said and done, but it won’t come easy against the Troy Trojans. This is assuming Gunnar Watson is a full-go and the spread certainly suggests he will be. The Trojans offense ranks 31st in the FBS in efficiency with Watson at QB. While Coastal Carolina has been dominant, their recent reputation is moving this line a few points. 

These teams are very close in talent and the only significant difference comes with coaching. CCU is far more disciplined and devoted to their identity. With that said, I fully expect Troy to give the Chanticleers a tough test. They are solid defensively and will be happy to have Watson back healthy. Troy might even lead this game for parts, though I expect the CCU running game to prevail. Give me the Trojans and 11 points. 

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Total Prediction

The Pick:
Final Score Prediction:

This number is too low for a pair of offenses that can put up 30+ points apiece with ease. The Trojans offense is dynamic with Watson under center and this game will turn into a shootout in the second half. The Chanticleers have proven an ability to beat defenses however they want and they will eventually figure out the Troy defense. 

While both defenses have solid numbers, they haven’t really been tested. Both teams have played quality opponents, but none of them have had a lethal offense. The Chanticleers are also a bit banged up defensively and they’ll be playing with at least two backups in the second level. I expect a high-scoring affair here and I’m a fan of the over up to 55. 

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