Cheyanne Buys vs Gloria de Paula Prediction

July 29, 2021

Cheyanne Buys -175 vs Gloria de Paula

Fight is at 115 lbs and is +200 to end inside the distance. 

Betting Pick: De Paula +145

✅ This fight matches up a pair of fighters that earned their way into the promotion on Dana White’s Contender Series. Both were impressive in those fights but then both lost their debut within the promotion, both being out grappled. Cheyanne Buys fought the lesser competition in her debut, and was controlled on the mat by Montserrat Conejo. Of course, we just saw Conejo get starched two weeks ago and that loss looks even a bit uglier now, as Buys was a large favorite. Buys is a pressure striker, and she will push forward throughout the fight. She may need to find a way to get the fight to the floor however, as she has a number of things working against her in this matchup. She is not an exceptional grappler by any means, but both her and her opponent have had some difficulties returning to their feet when taken down. Now, Buys will want to strike, and she will need to pressure to get home. She is giving up 2” of height and 4” of reach to her opponent, and is certainly the less accurate striker. 

✅ Gloria de Paula is a Muay Thai striker that brings real power at 115 lbs and is very technical and accurate with her strikes. She ran into trouble off her back in her debut, but takedowns are less likely to come her way in this fight. She also will not be facing a controlling BJJ fighter if taken down, and will be far more likely to find her way back to her feet. Where she will shine in this fight is in counter shots and technique in the clinch. I mentioned Buys will crash forward, and it will leave plenty of openings for de Paula to sting her coming in and get to the Thai plum in the clinch. De Paula is very nasty with her Thai plum and can deal out real damage. Expect to see that happen more than once in this fight. Her length advantage will also serve her well when countering and she will land the more damaging shots throughout, and I believe she will land more volume as well. 

✅ I truly can’t wrap my head around this betting line as I believe de Paula should be the favored fighter. At least a pick em for goodness sake! At any rate, there is still an experience deficiency for both fighters so I’m somewhat open to being wrong on fight night, but the value on de Paula is bordering on exceptional. Take her to show off her striking in a much higher profile spot than would otherwise be expected, as the third last fight on the card. She will have some new fans after Saturday night. 

Betting Pick: De Paula +145
TJ Calkins
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today.