Brian Kelleher vs Dom Pilarte Prediction

August 19, 2021

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11:00 PM ET Aug 21
Brian Kelleher vs Dom Pilarte
Kelleher
-175
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Brian Kelleher -175 vs Dom Pilarte

Fight is at 135 lbs and is -175 to end inside the distance. 

Betting Pick: Kelleher -175

✅  Given what we’ve seen from Dom Pilarte in the octagon so far, this is an extremely rough stylistic matchup for him. He looked better before reaching the UFC, but has been exposed on some levels within the promotion. The grappler really does poorly in all aspects of striking defense, and it seems he truly does not enjoy the being hit portion at this level of MMA. Even his wrestling and grappling defense is not the greatest against pressure of any sort, leaving his only true strength at this level to be his offensive grappling. I truly thought we were getting a better fighter once he hit the UFC, but the proof is in the pudding. He may turn to a deer in headlights from the shorter, pressuring fighter in this matchup. 

Brian Kelleher is a fun fighter that has plenty of UFC experience and he has been a fairly easy fighter to predict. He wins against the fighters he should win against and loses against the fighters he should lose against. Consider the list of fighters he’s beaten:

  • Ray Rodriguez
  • Hunter Azure
  • Ode Osbourne
  • Renan Barao
  • Damian Stasiak
  • Iuri Alcantara

Now contrast with the fighters he’s lost to:

  • Ricky Simon
  • Cody Stamann
  • Montel Jackson
  • John Lineker
  • Marlon Vera

✅ There is truly a different level when comparing one list to the other. Pilarte certainly falls in the lesser category, and is arguably Kelleher’s easiest matchup to date. Kelleher will pressure and do very well with he boxing in this matchup. He will have to defend some takedowns, which he is capable of, and he does have an advantage working for him in that department. He has a very very good guillotine and three of his UFC wins have all come via that choke. His only worry in this fight will be not giving up too much control time if taken down. He will own the standup portion and will have Pilarte retreating by the midpoint of the fight. 

✅ I do think a KO for Kelleher is the most likely outcome, but we are not getting much value on that bet. The ITD line is just +110, and it is just safer and still value laden to cover all avenues of victory with the -175 flat line. 

Betting Pick: Kelleher -175
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TJ Calkins
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today.