Brendan Allen vs Karl Roberson Predictions

April 22, 2021

Brendan Allen -155 vs Karl Roberson

Betting Play: Allen -155

Fight is at 185 lbs and is -215 to end inside the distance.

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Hey. There are some rules to UFC bets. Not official ones. But you know, my rules. One of those is that when Karl Roberson is fighting a high end grappler with any semblance of a complete game, I bet against Karl Roberson. 

We have seen Roberson matched up with opponents fitting this description three times in the UFC, and have seen him submitted three times. Wellington Turman, who is much lower level, was almost the fourth, but Roberson got past him.

✅ Brendan Allen fits the above bill, and with extra credit in this UFC 261 fight. He is an exceptional grappler and good wrestler, and his striking has made some progress as well. We are getting a gift as far as value on this line after a terrible game plan and fight from Allen in his last outing against Sean Strickland. 

I suspect with his improved striking, he wanted to see where he actually stood against a very good striker. The answer was he was not there yet. With that occurrence, I believe Allen goes back to his bread and butter grappling game. Once on the mat, Allen will absolutely have his way with Roberson, whose bottom game leaves much to be desired.

Roberson will once again be the better striker, but I believe Strickland was a more difficult opponent for Allen than Roberson is. I also believe Strickland to be more well rounded than Roberson. The hole in Roberson’s game will be exposed once again. Allen will get back on track, most likely with a submission, but there is no value deviating from the flat line on Allen in this fight.

Betting Pick: Allen -155

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TJ
TJ Calkins
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today.