Betting Odds Don’t Show Confidence in Key Biden Agenda Points
June 30, 2021
Washington D.C. likely won’t become a state in 2021, according to betting industry analysts at USsportsbonus.com (See Disclaimer Below). The odds of D.C. remaining without statehood are 1/24 (96% implied probability).
“While the arguments for and against D.C. statehood have picked up, the betting odds indicate that most people still aren’t confident in its passing,” says US Sportsbonus gambling industry analyst Jay Sanin. “It actually looks to be one of the least likely pieces of the recent Democratic agenda this year, a list that includes automatic voter registration, increased minimum wage, and setting up a January 6th Commission.”
The odds of automatic voter registration not becoming a law in 2021 are 1/19 (95% implied probability). These figures suggest the public are quite confident that automatic voter registration will fail to pass on a federal level, and oddsmakers share this confidence.
The filibuster also appears to be sticking around in 2021. The odds of it remaining through the year are 100/669 (87% implied probability).
“A $15 minimum wage has been something a lot of progressives have pushed for, but the Democratic party as a whole doesn’t seem to agree on it, which could lead oddsmakers to be skeptical about it becoming a reality,” says US Sportsbonus gambling industry analyst Jay Sanin. “As of now, oddsmakers are giving a $9.50 minimum wage just a 3% chance of passing by September f this year, indicating that they’re even less confident in $15.”
Odds also suggest Louis DeJoy will remain Postmaster General through at least August. His odds of remaining in the position on September 1, 2021 are 25/114 (82% implied probability).
Will $9.50 Federal Minimum Wage Pass by September 1, 2021?
Yes: 3233/100 (+3233) – 3% chance
Will Washington D.C. Become a State in 2021?
No: 1/24 (-2400) – 96% chance
Will the Filibuster End in 2021?
No: 100/669 (-669) – 87% chance
Will Automatic Voter Registration Become Law in 2021?
No: 1/19 (-1900) – 95% chance
Will Louis DeJoy be Postmaster General on September 1, 2021?
Yes: 25/114 (-456) – 82% chance
Disclaimer: Wagering on the outcomes presented in this article is not currently legalized in the U.S. Odds listed are for illustrative purposes only, and are gathered from overseas operators, where betting on such props is legal and regulated.
