Auburn Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Picks

The 5-2 Auburn Tigers will go on the road Saturday afternoon to face off with the 7-0 Alabama Crimson Tide at 3:30 PM ET in Bryant-Denny Stadium. The Crimson Tide come in as 13.5-point home favorites and we’re looking at a bit of a shootout with a 60.5 over/under. It’s always surprising to see ‘Bama less than a two-touchdown favorite – especially at home. Let’s dive into how this one will go down and who will end up covering the spread. Make sure to check out the rest of my NCAAF Picks and Predictions for this weekend’s slate of games.

• Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog.
• Crimson Tide are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
• Over is 4-0 in Crimson Tide last 4 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Under is 21-10-1 in Crimson Tide last 32 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

The Auburn Tigers don’t have one of their better teams this season, but they’re still one of the five best in the SEC and they’re a tough test for anyone. Any team that is less than a two-touchdown underdog in Alabama deserves massive respect. Sophomore QB Bo Nix is very inconsistent, but he’s elite when on his game. He has 10 touchdowns and five INTs. He has added 342 yards and three scores on the ground, but Auburn will need Nix to have a big game through the air against Alabama. 

Seth Williams and Anthony Schwartz are elite receivers and both do a lot of the tough work for Nix. Williams is more of the prototypical outside receiver while Schwartz is a speedster that can take it to the house on any given play. Against Alabama, these guys should both have the ball in their hands a minimum of 10 times. 

The Kentucky Wildcats kept it close with the Crimson Tide last week for half of a quarter before Alabama blew the doors off and won 63-3. They’ve now won their last two games by a score of 104-3. They might not have been the cream of the SEC crop, but those are still SEC teams that dominate three to four states when it comes to recruiting. The Tide average 49.4 points per game, coming in third-best in the country. QB Mac Jones has thrown it for 2,426 yards and 18 touchdowns with just three INTs. He’s still in the discussion to win the Heisman.

Najee Harris is the next Alabama superstar running back and he’s up to 797 yards and 16 scores on the season. He’s a touchdown machine and the Tide give him the ball 20+ times in any meaningful game. Devonta Smith is one of the best receivers in the country and he will see at least 10 targets. It just comes down to whether Alabama wants to beat Auburn by more or less than 13.5 here. 

If you can get this number under two touchdowns, you take Alabama and don’t think twice. They not only have a lot more to play for, but they’re also the far better team. Bo Nix has been a turnover machine this year and he’s going to struggle with this Bama defense. I’ll take the Crimson Tide all day here and would recommend jumping on the number before it’s over 14. 

I’m not a big fan of what I’ve seen from the Auburn offense to this point, but I like them to turn things around in this game as they try to play catch-up. The pressure is off of them for the most part and Nix will feel free to let it fly in a game nobody expects them to win. I think Bama outlasts them by a wide margin, but there will be plenty of points scored and I’m a big fan of the over.