Ashley Yoder vs Jinh Yu Frey Prediction

Fight is at 115 lbs and is +250 to end inside the distance.

✅ Jinh Yu Frey was able to get her first win in the promotion in her last fight. That came against Gloria de Paula, who we have a play on on this card. Frey was able to use her BJJ to control the inexperienced de Paula to earn that win, but will not have that path available to her in this matchup. While Frey is a complete fighter, she does not bring any striking power, and the former atomweight is undersized for the division. She may not have an answer if takedowns and grappling are not an available path to victory for her, even if her opponent isn’t the slickest striker in the division. Frey will be giving up 4” in both height and reach and she will be at a power disadvantage as well as the length disadvantage. Frey, a fighter that lacks power also lacks volume as well. In three UFC fights with a combined 42+ minutes of fight time, she has not accumulated more than 26 significant strikes in any fight. 

✅ Ashley Yoder is a more experienced UFC strawweight and has a complete skill set. Her striking is just so-so, but her length will give her an advantage here and she will deal out more damage as well in the stand up. I believe her to be the bigger and stronger fighter and better wrestler, so the grappling exchanges are quite likely to come on her terms. She should control the clinch exchanges and should be the fighter working from top should the fight hit the mat. Simply put, this line is not wide enough and one where Yoder is going overlooked. I would not have an issue with a -200 line, so there is oodles of value on Yoder. 

✅ While Frey has been finished in the UFC before, I believe a dominant decision for Yoder is more likely than a finish. That said, I would understand supplementing an ITD play on Yoder at the juicy +425 figure. The flat play however is the safe one, and will be our avenue of attack.