Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Florida Gators Betting Picks

November 12, 2020

Date:Saturday, November 14th
Time:7:00 PM ET
Network:ESPN
Venue:The Swamp
Spread:Florida -17
O/U:60.5

The 3-3 Arkansas Razorbacks will go on the road Saturday night to face off with the 4-1 Florida Gators at 7:00 PM ET in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. The Gators come in as 17-point home favorites and we’re expecting plenty of points with a 61 over/under. The Gators have moved up to sixth in the country and are still alive to make the CFB playoff. The Razorbacks will be looking to play spoiler and avoid going under .500 on the year. Let’s dive into how this one will go down and who will end up covering the spread. Make sure to check out the rest of my CFB Predictions and Picks for this huge weekend slate of games. 

Trends

  • Arkansas is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against Florida.
  • Florida is 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 8 of Arkansas’ last 11 games played in week 11.
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Florida’s last 7 games.

When The Arkansas Razorbacks Have The Ball

The Razorbacks have been the very definition of up and down this season, alternating wins and losses every single week. They’re now 3-3 on the season and coming off a 24-13 win over the Tennessee Volunteers in what was their most impressive showing to date. The defense shut Tennessee down and won the turnover battle. The offense stayed disciplined and threw the ball all over the field. They’ll face an extremely tough test this week against Florida and according to the flip-flopping of their schedule, it’s time for another loss.

The Razorbacks are led by Florida Gators-transfer Feleipe Franks and he will obviously want to put on a show against the team and coach that benched him. He’s been solid this season, completing 67% of his passes for 1,428 yards and 14 touchdowns with just three interceptions. He’s run it for another 174 yards and is becoming more dual-threat with each game that passes. The Gators have been tough on the pass this season and Franks will have a hard time keeping the ball safe.

Franks has spread it around big time with six different pass-catchers hauling in either 15 catches or going for 130+ yards. Treylon Burks is the clear WR1, catching 31 balls for 461 yards and five touchdowns from the outside. He primarily runs short routes, but has been able to get over the top as well for the Razorbacks this season. Mike Woods and De’Vion Warren compliment Burks with Woods being the slot receiver and Warren focusing on stretching the field. Arkansas tends to run a lot of two-TE sets and both Blake Hern and Hudson Henry get involved plenty. When Franks needs an outlet, they go towards HB Trelon Smith, who’s caught 17 balls for 107 yards and a score.

Speaking of Smith, he’s shared the backfield with Rakeem Boyd and both have been solid. Smith has been the more effective runner, averaging 4.6 yards per carry to 3.6 for Boyd. Smith has also been the better pass-catcher, and he will be on the field more against the Gators. They’ll likely fall behind early and the versatility of Smith will help. The Gators won’t make anything easy on this offense.

When The Florida Gators Have The Ball

The Gators catapulted into the sixth spot in the rankings after beating the Georgia Bulldogs with relative ease. The game was close at times, but the Gators seemed to outclass the Bulldogs from the jump. The Gators are now 4-1 on the season with their lone loss coming to fifth-ranked Texas AM. It was a game the Gators should have won if not for a late fumble and we’d likely see them ranked third or fourth at the very least.

Florida has one of the best offenses in the nation, ranking second in offensive efficiency while averaging 495 yards and 42.4 points per game. They’re led by QB Kyle Trask, who’s jumped into the Heisman discussion after massacring every defense he has faced. Through five games, Trask has piled up 1,815 yards and 22 touchdowns. He’s also great at escaping pressure, as shown by his 70 rushing yards.

Superstar tight end Kyle Pitts was knocked out of the Georgia game with a concussion on a dirty hit and he is currently questionable for this game. While it would be great to have him out there, they have enough weapons to get by against Arkansas. The Gators are going to throw it 40 times in this game and Kadarius Toney will be the primary target. He’s caught 29 balls for 339 yards and six touchdowns and is a threat to take it to the house on any given touch. Trevon Grimes starts on the outside and he will become more involved if Pitts is out, along with backup TE Kemore Gamble.

The Gators keep their running backs involved and while Dameon Pierce and Malik Davis aren’t talked about much on a national level, they will be drafted by the NFL for a reason. Both are versatile backs and they’ve averaged 4.2 yards per carry as a pair. Pierce has slowly picked up more carries, but that might just be to keep Davis fresh for when it matters most as he is a bit more prone to injury.

Spread Prediction

The Pick: Gators -17

The Razorbacks have been solid when throwing the ball, but this Gators secondary is the best one they’ve faced to this point and their running game has been far from trustworthy. The Gators are dangerous when they’re able to pin their ears back and go after the QB. They’re going to put up their usual 40-50 points and I don’t think the Razorbacks have a great week offensively. Florida looked phenomenal against Georgia a week ago and Arkansas will not stand in their way. Give me the Gators here up to three touchdowns.

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Total Prediction

The Pick: Over 60.5
Final Score Prediction: Gators 45, Razorbacks 17

I’ll take the over here as a lean on the Gators offense having fun in this one. Whether Kyle Pitts plays or not, the Gators are going to put up 40-50 points at the very least. Dan Mullen has no interest in slowing this offense down as now until the SEC championship is time to figure things our for this team. Give me the over, though I would rather take the spread.

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