Andre Fili vs Daniel Pineda Prediction

June 24, 2021

Andre Fili -225 vs Daniel Pineda

Fight is at 145 lbs and is -115 to end inside the distance. 

Betting Pick: Fili -225

✅ Andre Fili is rightfully favored here, but for as wide as this line is, it should be wider. This fight is certainly a step back for Fili, who has suffered two losses in his last three fights. There is no shame in the losses to Sodiq Yusuff and Bryce Mitchell, but with the losses come a step down in the level of competition. Fili is quite well rounded, and I believe him to have an advantage in every single area. He is the savvier striker that does bring enough power for a finish. He brings sound wrestling and has a very good BJJ game. He is also durable which mitigates the risk of a flash finish loss. Fili will win the striking and additionally be able to dictate where the fight takes place. He outclasses Pineda and while this fight won’t move him any closer to high end relevance in the division, it will get him back in the win column. 

✅ Daniel Pineda enters his third fight of his second UFC stint. He fought elsewhere from 2015 to 2020, but surprised a lot of people with a finish of Herbert Burns in his return. I was among the surprised, but I feel that was more about Burns showing than it was about Pineda himself. For evidence of that, we can look at his next fight with Cub Swanson, in which he was soundly beaten and ultimately knocked out in the second round. It gets worse for the 35 year old as Fili is his toughest opponent yet. We will likely see something similar to what happened in the Swanson fight.

✅ It is difficult to envision a path to victory for Pineda. Fili will not gas, is durable, and outclasses Pineda in the standup and wrestling. The BJJ skill sets are close enough, but both fighters will be able to stay safe from the other in that regard. We get a friendly price on Fili in a fight he should have a very easy time with, and the flat line will be the pay on Fili.

Betting Pick: Fili -225
TJ Calkins
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today.