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Alabama Crimson Tide (2) vs. Texas AM Aggies (13) Betting Picks and Predictions

03 October 2020

NCAAF Picks Austyn Varney
Date:Saturday, October 3rd
Time:3:30 PM ET
Venue:Bryant-Denny Stadium
Network:CBS
Spread:Alabama -18
O/U:52.5

The 1-0 13th-ranked Texas A&M Aggies will go on the road to face off with the 1-0 1st-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide at 3:30 PM ET in Bryant-Denny Stadium. You can catch the game on CBS. The Crimson Tide are 18-point favorites, but the Aggies are going to give them one of the toughest tests of the season. It’s going to be a very fun SEC face-off.  Let’s dive into what will go down and who will cover the spread. 

When the Texas A&M Aggies Have The Ball

While the Aggies aren’t on the same talent level as Alabama, the only team in the country that is close is Clemson. With that being said, this is the best Texas A&M team since Johnny Manziel was there. They opened things up in week one with a slight 17-12 win over the Vanderbilt Commodores. 

The offense looked anemic at times, turning the ball over and putting up just 17 points against an average-at-best Vanderbilt squad. With that being said, they were left empty-handed on three different red zone drives and they could have very well blown them out. If a few plays go different way there, A&M covers and we’re looking at an even smaller spread in this one. 

QB Kellen Mond is in his third year under center and expectations are higher than ever. He was decent against Vandy, taking care of the ball and throwing for 189 yards and a score. The Commodores defense is an underrated one against the pass and I don’t worry much about Mond moving forward. He’s joined in the backfield by Isaiah Spiller and Ainias Smith. Spiller is the more explosive of the bunch, but don’t be surprised to see Smth get touches in the RZ. They both make a difference in the passing game. 

On the outside, Jalen Preston is one of the best athletes in the SEC and he’ll cause problems even against the Alabama secondary. Caleb Chapman is another four-star recruit that is individually as talented as anyone on the defense. They’re complemented by Chase Lane and Kam Brown, who are sure-handed options that will only see three or four targets per game. If the Aggies want to keep this game relatively close, Kellen Mond is going to have to step up in a massive way. The offense goes as he goes and they didn’t look great in week one. 

Look for Mond to get back on track against Bama and for him to make this one close. For the first half at least. Alabama didn’t look their usual self in week one and looked extra susceptible through the air. Mond has the ability if he can just put his head together.

When The Alabama Crimson Tide Have The Ball

The 2nd-ranked Crimson Tide are once again the College Football cream of the crop for what feels like the 15th season in a row. They opened the season with a 38-19 win over the Missouri Tigers in a game that was never close. Najee Harris paved the way offensively with 98 yards and three touchdowns. QB Mac Jones added 249 yards and two scores. He didn’t blow anyone away but certainly didn’t give Saban a reason to insert Bryce Young. 

The majority of his throws went to Jaylen Waddle, who finished the day with eight catches, 134 yards, and two touchdowns. He’s one of the best wide receivers in the nation and so is his teammate Devonta Smith. The pair is an unstoppable duo for any defense and the Texas A&M Aggies are going to have their hands full. They’re complemented by John Metchie III, who’s a constant threat to go to the house. 

With that being said, this is an Alabama team that is going to rely on their defense and run game. Harris is a workhorse of a running back and he’s going to inevitably finish the season with close to 20 rushing scores. This isn’t the explosive Alabama attack we’ve gotten used to of late, but that will all change if Bryce Young is inserted as a starter. The freshman is a five-star prospect and the best high school QB in the class. 

Against Texas A&M, Alabama will need to play a clean football game. They have the talent to challenge Alabama and are a well-coached team. Crazier things have happened, so the Crimson Tide better come to play at 3:30 or the Aggies will be hunting for that upset. 

Spread Prediction

The Aggies always seem to give Alabama trouble and I think this game ends up being extremely close. Both teams are extremely talented and the Crimson Tide are still figuring out who will play QB for the rest of the season. The Aggies defense dominated the Commodores, holding them to just 255 total yards. While this will be a completely different challenge, the Aggies defense swarmed to the ball and did exactly what was necessary to slow down Alabama. 

The Crimson Tide will wear down Texas A&M, but this game will be relatively close for three quarters and I don’t suspect ‘Bama will pull away by more than 18 points when it comes down to it. The A&M offense got their growing pains out against Vandy and will be ready to score three or four touchdowns against Alabama. Give me Texas A&M with the points. 

The Pick: Texas A&M +18

Best Sportsbooks For This Pick

New JerseyWilliam Hill square logoBet@William Hill
PennsylvaniaSugarHouse online casino square logoBet@SugarHouse
IndianaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
West VirginiaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
ColoradoBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
IllinoisBetRivers square logoBet@BetRivers

Total Prediction

If I’m expecting Texas A&M to la a few scores on the board, this one is going to coast over 52.5. While both of these SEC defenses are strong, these two coaches seem to know each other very well. The Aggies always give ’Bama a tough test and this is the best team they’ve had in some time.

 It’s always heart-wrenching to bet against Alabama, but this team is still figuring some things out and Saban won’t mind a relatively close game to show the kids anything can happen. The Aggies certainly have the tools to make it tough on both sides of the ball. Give me the over all day here as my favorite bet in this game. 

The Pick: Over 52.5

Final Score Prediction: Alabama 35, Texas A&M 24

Best Sportsbooks For This Pick

New JerseyWilliam Hill square logoBet@William Hill
PennsylvaniaSugarHouse online casino square logoBet@SugarHouse
IndianaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
West VirginiaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
ColoradoBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
IllinoisBetRivers square logoBet@BetRivers

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