Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Florida Gators Betting Picks

The 10-0 Alabama Crimson Tide will meet the 8-2 Florida Gators for the SEC Championship on Saturday night at 8:00 PM ET in Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Crimson Tide come in as 17-point favorites and we’re looking at plenty of points on the board with a 74.5 over/under. The SEC Championship and a bid into the CFB Playoff is at stake. Let’s dive into how this one will go down and who will end up covering the spread. Make sure to check out the rest of our CFB Picks and Predictions as we will be covering every single conference championship and bowl game.

• Gators are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
• Gators are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss.
• Over is 12-3-1 in Crimson Tide last 16 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
• Over is 8-1-1 in Gators last 10 neutral site games as an underdog.

The Crimson Tide are rightfully ranked first in the nation. There are questionable performances surrounding every other team. Alabama has wiped out all 10 of their opponents and I wouldn’t say any game was close. They’ve outscored their last five opponents by a score of 253-36. That should tell you more than enough about the massacre Alabama is putting on folks. They’re averaging 50 points per game and get to face a Florida defense that has been terrible.

They’re elite offensively in every way. They have the best RB in CFB in Najee Harris, who’s hauled it 183 times for 1,084 yards and 22 touchdowns on top of 249 receiving yards. QB Mac Jones is the odds-on favorite to win the Heisman after throwing for 3,321 yards and 27 touchdowns with just three INTs. The player with the second-best odds is WR Devonta Smith, who’s caught 83 balls for 1,327 yards and 15 touchdowns. He will be a top-7 pick in the NFL draft and rightfully so. This Alabama offense won’t be stopped, so they just have to make sure the defense does enough.

The Gators won’t be at a disadvantage when it comes to offense. Alabama might be great, but this Gators team can stay with anyone in the country. Averaging 386 yards per game, QB Kyle Trask has put up 3,717 yards with 40 touchdowns and five interceptions. He gets to throw it to TE Kyle Pitts and WR Kadarius Toney, who are two of the best pass-catchers in the country. Toney is a human joystick that can score on any touch while Pitts is the best tight end in football that is a mock wideout.

When Florida does run the ball, Malik Davis and Dameon Pierce split time. They are both solid but are means to an end and that end is opening up the passing attack. This is the best passing attack in the country and they can beat Alabama if the defense can make a few plays. It just comes down to stopping an Alabama offense that can beat you in so many ways. If Florida can force a couple of turnovers, the offense is dangerous enough to win a game of catch-up.

I like the Florida Gators to keep this game competitive from start to finish. I won’t be crazy and predict a Gators victory, but it honestly wouldn’t surprise me. The Gators might be the only team in the country that can stay with Alabama. They have similar talent on the defensive side of the ball if the Gators can just put it all together. There’s no way I can lay 17 points against this Gators team and would much rather be on the other side. Trask and Mullen are going to lay 40+. 

The over is the best bet in this game, no matter how scary it looks. 74.5 just isn’t enough for these two offenses. I wholeheartedly expect both teams to get into the 40’s and I would be shocked if the winner doesn’t approach 50. These defenses are talented, but they are nowhere near what the offenses bring to the table. Give me both offenses to have a ton of success here and for the over to smash. I would be surprised if the number isn’t around 78 by kickoff.