Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Picks

December 9, 2020

Date:Saturday, December 12th
Time:12:00 PM ET
Network:ESPN
Venue:Razorback Stadium
Spread:Alabama -32
O/U:68

The 9-0 Alabama Crimson Tide will go on the road Saturday to face off with the 3-6 Arkansas Razorbacks at 12:00 PM ET in Razorback Stadium. The Crimson Tide enter as massive 32-point road favorites and we’re expecting plenty of points with a 68 over/under. You can tune into the showdown on ESPN. Let’s dive into how this one will go down and who will end up covering the spread. Make sure to check out the rest of my CFB Picks and Predictions for the upcoming weekend slate of games.

Trends

  • Razorbacks are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
  • Razorbacks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
  • Under is 5-0 in Razorbacks last 5 games as a home underdog.

When The Alabama Crimson Tide Have The Ball

The Crimson Tide are coming off a 55-17 win over LSU in a game that was never close. The team has only been in two competitive games to this point and the win was never truly in question in either. They’ve dominated their last four SEC opponents by a combined score of 201-37. Alabama has already clinched their spot in the SEC title and they’ll be looking to keep their stars healthy in what’s close to a meaningless game.

The offense starts with RB Najee Harris, who’s the best workhorse back in college football. He likely won’t be used much in this game in favor of backups Brian Robinson Jr. and Trey Sanders. The passing attack is led by Mac Jones, who currently sits second in the country for Heisman odds. He’s up to 3,113 yards with 27 scores and three INTs. He has one of the best receivers in the entire country at his disposal in Devonta Smith, who’s caught 80 balls for 1,305 yards and 15 touchdowns.

When The Arkansas Razorbacks Have The Ball

It’s been a grim season for the Razorbacks and things are sure to only get worse here. They’re coming off a 50-48 loss to the Missouri Tigers in a game that likely took a lot of wind out of their sails. That’s not an easy game to lose when falling to 3-6. The offense isn’t very potent, though QB Feleipe Franks hasn’t been terrible. He’s completed 68% of his passes for 2,017 yards, 17 touchdowns, and four interceptions.

Treylon Burks (804 yards, 7 TD) is one of the best receivers in the SEC and he does a lot of the hard work for Franks. Mike Woods isn’t bad either, used more as the deep threat. Trelon Smith heads the backfield with 115 carries for 641 yards and five touchdowns, spelled by Rakeem Boyd and Franks. The Razorbacks must avoid turning the ball over if they want to keep this game within 32 points.

Spread Prediction

The Pick: Arkansas +32

You won’t often find me betting against Alabama. This is a special circumstance. The SEC Championship game is a week from this one and the last think Nick Saban can have happen is a key player getting hurt. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the backups start the third quarter and while they will steal beat the Razorbacks as a unit, I think Arkansas finds a way to stay within the number. It’s scary, but it’s also the right move as Alabama will have no intention of running the score up this week and they will inevitably rest guys like Harris and Smith early.

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Total Prediction

The Pick: Under 68
Final Score Prediction: Alabama 38, Arkansas 10

The same reasoning goes here. The over needs a fired-up Alabama team and I don’t think we see that here. The SEC Championship is already scheduled against the Florida Gators and the Crimson Tide couldn’t care less about this game. It’s an easy win and the offense likely won’t put up 50 points on their own. Arkansas won’t have much of any offensive success and the under is a bet I love here.

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