2021 NFC West Betting Pick
July 29, 2021
The NFC West is one of the more competitive divisions entering the 2021 season. It would not be at all surprising to see all four teams finish the season with a record over .500. In fact, all four teams have a win total of 8,5 or greater, so the winning records for all teams is actually an expectation.
With a division this tight on projections, it is important to hunt for inequities on odds and correlations. That is what we are looking at here, as the San Francisco 49ers provide both the best value and best chance to win the division.
NFC West Betting Pick
✅ The 49ers shoud be healthier (read: much better) along the defensive line this season, and that will make a massive difference for them. Having the defense stay level with their offense is all important, and would be a huge factor for another Super Bowl run liek in 2019. Their offense will always be viable with the system of Kyle Shanahan, but has a chance to be wildly efficient and effective this season. The running game and zone scheme of Shanahan's is always effective, but the passing game will likely be wildly difficult to defend. Whether it is Jimmy Garroppolo or Trey Lance under center, the weapons available will make their life quite easy. Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and Deebo Samuel are absolutely an elite trio of run after catch players, and risky throws just simply won't be necessary very often. Aiyuk also brings real field stretching ability and adds an extra element to the offense. The 49ers are the most complete team in the division and the best bet to win it, at a sound plus figure.
✅ The rest of the division is a group of quality teams, but the remainder of the teams have more warts to point at that could be their undoing. The Cardinals (+600) should have an explosive offense but are still lacking on the defensive side of the ball. The explosive offense is also likely to have some maddening inconsistency under Kliff Kingsbury. The Seahawks (+275) are still coached by Pete Carroll who has made a living off riding Russell Wilson's coattails and is truly a subpar NFL coach. His presence alone makes Wilson's and the team's life harder, and makes them a non viable betting candidate. The Rams (+190) project to be the biggest obstacle for the 49ers. Matthew Stafford taking the reigns of the offense should be a boon for their assing game, and they return a high quality defense lead by the league's best player, Aaron Donald. Where the Rams will continue to have some struggles is in their running game. Of course, they have already lost Cam Akers for the season and Darrell Henderson is highly questionable at best to be a back that can carry a workload and turn it to true production. Truth is, McVay coached offenses have not quite been the same since the decline and departure of Todd Gurley, and that is liekly to be the missing element that causes the Rams the fall short of the 49ers in 2021.
✅ We do have some odds digging and inequities to exploit with the 49ers. When comparing division odds to win total odds, the 49ers jump off the page as a value. The divison win totals vs division winning odds are as follows.
- 49ers - 10.5 - +190
- Rams - 10 - +190
- Seahawks - 10 - +275
- Cardinals - 8.5 - +600
Knowing we can't bet a Pete Carroll coached team, the 49ers are the obvious value. They have the highest win total in the division, but the value does not stop there. If we go to the DraftKings site and click away from the “to win division” pricing and navigate to "division finishing position odds, we get the 49ers to finish 1st at +200.
