French Open Odds

French Open 2020 is scheduled for September 20 to October 4. Obviously there is still some uncertainty whether this event will take place or not but there are future outright winner odds in place and some interesting winner picks for this years Roland Garros.

Worth mentioning is that all bets will be voided and paid back in case the French Open 2020 is canceled.

Let’s start by looking at what stands out with these odds from DraftKings.

Federer is not listed which is weird as there is still some chance he might play. The Laver Cup is played at the same time and with Federer being one of the events most important ambassadors he clearly has a responsibility to play the Laver Cup but, that event is still not yet 100% confirmed which leaves the door slightly open for a potential Federer participation in the French Open 2020.

Casper Ruud is listed as the tenth most likely player to win the French Open 2020!!!??? This will never happen and even though the odds are +7500 it is completely off. Ruud has not been close to winning anything big yet.

The French Open is in my book the least exciting Grand Slam of the year. Not because I do not love the game played on the dirt but because it has the fewest amount of potential winners which is also reflected in the odds.

So who will win the French Open 2020?

Nadal, Djokovic or Thiem. Nadal +105, is the clear favorite which is 100% correct but I think 2020 is the perfect year for a change and the year when the Big Three will stop being as dominant as prior to the long corona break. I wrote a short analysis on this in my article on the US Open 2020.

Djokovic +220 is second favorite which is also 100% correct but third favorite Thiem +300 is my personal pick to win the French Open 2020 and I have a few reasons to back this up.

1. Looking at the odds: +300 is good value on Thiem. He played in the final of this years Australian Open. He has been in two consecutive Roland Garros finals, 2018 and 2019.
2. Statistics: Some players needs more time to get used to and adapt to the big games. Andy Murray won his first Grand Slam in his fifth GS final appearance (3 GS wins in total and 8 GS final losses). Wawrinka is the complete opposite with 3 straight wins from his first 3 GS final appearances (3 GS wins in total and 1 GS final loss). My points is that eventually a player like Thiem will walk away with a win a Grand Slam and the French Open 2020 might be his best chance to date to do so.
3. Experience: Dominic Thiem is no longer a young rising star, he is a established top tennis player and after losing 3 straight GS finals he should be mentally ready (we know he is already physically fit) to get his first GS.
4. The long break: Thiem is one of the hardest working players on the tour. Earlier this week he starred in a tournament in Austria and completely crushed his opponents (who might not hold ATP standard). I think Thiem is one of the players who are benefitting more than most other players from the long pause.

After arguing that the French Open 2020 will either be won by Nadal, Djokovic or Thiem it’s hard to try to convince anyone that there will actually be another winner BUT, some odds are just too good to ignore.

Fabio Fognini at +15000. Fognini just had both his ankles operated which is naturally not great preparation for winning the French Open 2020. But, Fognini is a reigning champion in the ATP 1000 Monte Carlo event where he bear Nadal in the semi finals. He is also one of the most natural talents on the tour and his game is not physical like Nadal and Thiem. Fognini plays elegantly and is not depending on a lot of hours on the practice court like to be successful. Motivation is his biggest enemy. Fognini to win the French open 2020 is very unlikely but the odds are just too good to ignore.