Thiem vs Sonego - ATP Rome Predictions

Thiem vs Sonego is the final match of the Thursday slate at the ATP Rome Masters. With the final spot in the quarterfinals on the line, both players will look to continue producing results in Rome against a tricky opponent. In this round of tennis picks, we look at Thiem vs Sonego and provide our best bet for the main event on Grand Stand Arena in Rome.

This is Dominic Thiem’s second tournament during the current clay court season. He made it to the semifinal in Madrid before falling to a red-hot Sascha Zverev, and has followed that performance up with a win in his first match in Rome. That win came in three sets over Marton Fucsovics, who has been a thorn in the side of elite players all year on every surface.

Encouraging for Thiem is how he finished the match against Fucsovics. After dropping the first set and taking the second set in a tiebreak, Thiem bageled the Hungarian to earn entry into the round of 16. While it is unlikely that he can sustain the level he produced in the third set against Fucsovics, Thiem is the deserved favorite against Sonego here.

Sonego, by the way, is looking for his second clay court title of the European clay court swing. He took the title at the 250 event in Caligari, though that competition took place against far worse competition than he is facing here in Rome. This week, Sonego beat Gael Monfils in three sets in round one, followed by Gianluca Mager in straight sets.

For the Italian, the goal in this match has to be to just make Thiem work as hard as possible. Thiem has held serve at an 84% clip on clay over the last year, compared to just 79% for Sonego. Thiem has also broken serve at a 9% higher clip than Sonego on this surface over the last year. But if Sonego can turn points into a grind and coax errors out of an opponent who can be prone to them at times, he can certainly find himself in contention here.

Thiem vs Sonego is a matchup that has only been contested once previously. That came in Kitzbuhel in 2019, where Thiem beat Sonego in straight sets. Kitzbuhel is a tough tournament to judge these two in, as the high altitude certainly benefits a bigger hitter in Thiem, as does the fact that Thiem was playing in his home country of Austria.

Lorenzo Sonego is by no means an easy out, and Thiem will have to play some strong tennis if he wants to advance to the quarterfinals. But Thiem is better than Sonego in just about every facet of the game and should be able to advance here in straight sets. With a difficult quarterfinal looming, expect the Austrian to get off the court as quickly as possible to preserve his gas tank for the rest of the week.