Thiem vs Isner - ATP Madrid Predictions

Thiem vs Isner is the first quarterfinal of the day at the ATP Madrid Masters on Friday morning. Thiem is certainly the better clay court player historically, but Isner has utilized some favorable conditions to blast his serve through everyone who has stood in his way this week. In this round of tennis picks, we look at Thiem and Isner’s confrontation in the Madrid quarterfinals.

Dominic Thiem entered the Madrid Masters having been out of action for a month and a half. But he has looked good in his first two matches, winning against Marcos Giron and Alex De Minaur in straight sets. Here, Thiem faces his toughest test of the week against an opponent in Isner who takes the racquet out of the hands of his opponents in most matches.

After destroying Giron in his first match this week, Thiem was tested by De Minaur despite winning in straight sets. The first set went to a tiebreak, which was tight until the very end when Thiem pulled it out. If Thiem ends up in a tiebreak against Isner, he may not be as fortunate given Isner’s superlative record and experience in breakers.

John Isner has played three matches this week in Madrid, going the distance in each of his last two. After taking Miomir Kecmanovic out in straight sets, the American beat Roberto Bautista-Agut and Andrey Rublev in deciding sets. Isner will need to be ready for another difficult match here against his Austrian adversary.

Fortunately for Isner, he will be aided by the altitude in Madrid, a location on tour that he has described as ideal for his massive serve. The altitude, while not quite on the level of Quito on the tour schedule, is about half of what Denver, Colorado has to offer. That has helped Isner thump 89 aces in his three matches this week. If he can approach 30 for a fourth straight match, he could reach the semifinals.

Thiem vs Isner has been played three times previously, with Thiem taking two of those three matchups. Their lone matchup on clay came in 2015 in Nice, with Thiem taking that match in straight sets, though the first set was decided in a tiebreak. The Austrian will look to avoid any tiebreak situations this time around, as Isner is 4-1 in tiebreaks this week.

This Thiem vs Isner showdown will play out the way that most John Isner matches do. There will be at least one tiebreak involved, and the margins will be razor-thin on each side. While Thiem should win this match, expect these players to split the first two sets en route to a deciding third set. The over 2.5 sets bet is the way to go in what should be a tense affair.